In article , says...

As I mentioned over on the A-Rocket mailing list. If the amateur
satellite tracking community finds it then I'd say it was a success at
least in the sense that it achieved orbit.

Rumors based on Congressional leakage is that it did not. If no
sightings are found by the tracking community I'd say that pretty well
sums it up as a failure.

If the rumored price tag for Zuma is correct, I'd say likely two things:
1) It was a fairly big payload. 2) Too expenive to be a cover for
something else.

1. I agree with the assertion that it is likely "fairly big". But,
given the fairly high orbital inclination (50 some degrees) of the
launch and the fact that the first stage returned for a landing at Cape
Canaveral, that places a clear upper limit on the mass. This would be
nowhere near the Falcon 9 fully expendable payload to a 28 something
degree orbit in LEO, which would be the maximum. So, emphasis on
"fairly" when saying "fairly big".

2. I agree with.

Also based on SpaceX's reaction, I'd say also not likely a failure due
to anything SpaceX was responsbile for. Otherwise we'd see launch
delays. So far it appears to be full speed ahead.

Speculation is that it is likely a failed payload adapter, which was not
provided by SpaceX. I don't believe that there have been any failures
of the "standard" SpaceX payload adapter.

Jeff
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