"Rand Simberg" wrote in message
...
That's the title of my latest column at Tech Central Station, in which
I discuss why the economics of OSP make no sense.

http://www.techcentralstation.com/091903E.html

I see several flaws with your argument.

1) By using development costs for the OSP vs. not including them for the
shuttle you compare apples on oranges making the cost comparison worthless.

2) Using three launches have nothing to do with rocket capabilities. The
heavy versions of both the Delta and Atlas could launch a Big Gemini with
lots of cargo mass left over totaling more people and more cargo then the
shuttle. It has to do with reducing risks even though it raises costs.

3) The vast majority of the 12 billion cost estimates has to do with "man
rating" Atlas and Delta not the OSP itself. Most cost estimates put the cost
of a 4 man capsule at around 4 billion. The full man rating does not have to
be done until after the OSP is flying as a lifeboat and cargo vehicle, both
do not need to be rated until after it is carrying men to orbit delaying
greatly the cost of man rating the rockets. At the same time the lower
failure rate is beneficial in and of itself saving billions in lost
satellites.

4) If you are using 3 OSP flights to replace a shuttle flight and you
replace at least 4 shuttle flights a year that totals 12 not 4 or 8. If you
replace 6 shuttle flights then you have 18 flights.

5) If they use the capsule version they will be reasonably cheap. There is
no reason a private company with its own rocket could not buy an OSP. All
they need is the ability to launch 8 tons to LEO, less if they want to sell
suborbital flights.

6) Reusability is in the early stages not all that important. Without
sufficient rate of launches to support a decent number of vehicles and
absorb fixed costs reusability can easily raise costs.

7) Delta and Atlas rockets at low launch rates cost less then $100 million.
Shuttle flights cost right now over $600 million.
Even at an extra $100 million you only have the same cost not more for a
safer vehicle. With a little luck and decent launch rates you should be able
to get launch costs under $100 million. Based on 4 people and 500 kg of
cargo that is around $20 million a person considerably cheaper then the
shuttle at around $50 million.