M. Scott wrote:
Hi everyone:

It's looking increasingly likely that the space shuttle will not fly
again until next year. And therefore both the Chinese and Rutan (and/or
some other X-Prize teams) will fly before NASA does.

I'm curious as to how you think this will play out. I'm sure NASA will
be quite embarassed; the real question is how will NASA -- and the U.S.
public -- react?

First error is counting you chickens before they are hatched.

Second error is equating the shuttle with either effort. Shenzou
may fly before the next shuttle flight, but it's still 23 years after
the first shuttle flight, and something like 40 years after the nearest
US equivalent, Gemini. Same argument for Rutan - flying something like
45 years after it's nearest NASA counterpart, X-15.

This is taking nothing away from the Chinese and Rutan efforts. But
your take on it - fixing a system that has had 100+ sucessful flights of
immensely higher capability than those you compare it to, is really out
of left field.

Brett