On Monday, August 22, 2016 at 1:04:40 PM UTC+12, jonathan wrote:
'New port of call' installed at space station

https://www.mojahedin.org/newsen/48814

If NASA wants to sell its interest, and Russia is reducing crews, the only way forward is for private initiatives to take up the slack.

http://www.theregister.co.uk/2016/08...te_enterprise/

Bigelow modules launched on SpaceX Falcon Heavy rockets - docked with a privatised Space Station - provide core capabilities.

https://bigelowaerospace.com

Two B330 modules launched on a Falcon Heavy attached to the space station provide 3 suites for up to 12 people. (3 suites in each B330 module) - serviced by a Dragon Capsule carrying 6 people + 1 crew each.

Terrestrial hotels run between $50,000 and $90,000 a night and are quite luxurious.

http://edition.cnn.com/2014/02/18/tr...e-hotel-rooms/

B330 modules, not so much, but you'd be surprised what can be achieved if you try! Luxury yachts don't compare to the best hotels, but they do compare with quite good ones.

Charging $1,000,000 a night, for a 7 night stay, for a shared room, is not beyond the pale, especially if the ticket to get to the station costs several millions of dollars.

With six B330 modules attached, four with a total of a dozen suites for 24 people, and two for services, such as a full service five star restaurant in one and a zero gee gymnasium in the other - permits $24 million to be earned by the station proper, and likely another $16 million to be earned selling additional services and products. $40 million a day.

That's $14.6 billion a year. This is about $12 billion more than NASA's estimate and $9 billion more than OAG and GAO estimates of future costs for the ISS.

http://www.spacepolicyonline.com/new...rly-optimistic

I don't think such plans would pass muster in large publicly traded companies like Boeing or Lockheed. In fact, they'd likely charge the government to run ISS. So, if the government wants to get out from under these costs, a private company like Musk's SpaceX or Robert Bigelow's Bigelow Aerospace are the only serious candidates capable of seriously stepping up to the challenge. The big risk is that a future administration may order the station demolished as a hazard to space commerce. This is why I promoted the idea a few years back of moving the station out of harm's way putting it into Lunar orbit. There is a lot to recommend this. But, this is something that might be done after ten years or so, to revitalise the operation.

Is the market for multi-million dollar joy rides large enough to support development of the core techniques used to settle Mars in a few decades?

Well, 24 people a week, multiplied by 52 weeks is 1,248 people a week spending $40 million - That's a lot of money. It's what a significant home costs in the English countryside.

http://www.architecturaldigest.com/g...s-for-sale/all

Still its less than many luxury yachts, or a BBJ which people spend very little time on.

http://www.boeing.com/commercial/bbj/

Many of these are chartered - so, one might imagine a fractional ownership plan.

Here's the view from the cockpit of an aircraft that is available for charter near where I live

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7mxmFCw-Dig

Market pentration of about 5% is reasonable in whatever it is you're selling so, we're talking about 25,000 people as your target population and a 12 year product life cycle before the bottom falls out of the market. (60% ultimate market penetration at 5% per year) This should be enough to make the upgrades discussed above pay. If the people involved have the money to spend.

The point is, this sets the price.

How many are there?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ultra_...rth_individual

There are 211,275 people worth $30 million or more who control $29.7 trillion in liquid assets. There are 2,325 billionaires ($1,000 million or more) who control $7.3 trillion in liquid assets. Both cohorts are at the extreme end of the wealth spectrum, so their distribution is exponential at this point. So, numbers can be estimated by;

N = b * exp( a * W ) --- N = 242,894 * exp( -0.004648907* W)

So, someone who would spend on the order of $100 million for a week in space would likely have a net work of $250 million or more. There are likely 75,975 persons with this level of wealth. This is more than 3x the figure needed to get the volume called for.

In fact we can use the inverse of this function, to determine that we should pitch to people who are worth $489 million and above only - to get the target population required. This is an interesting figure in that $40 million for a week on orbit - is less than 10% of their net worth.

Another fun fact, people routinely spend $100 million or more for luxury yachts, and spend $100,000 per week or more to operate them. While they're nowhere near the price called for in the first generation space hotel, they do demonstrate that absolute luxury is not a requisite (though these yachts are quite luxurious, I looked at purchasing Mustang Sally from the owner of Subway a few years back) That is the accomodations on orbit won't be as good as the best accomodations on Earth, but they will be equal to that of the best luxury yachts.

http://www.yachtmustangsally.com

People who are worth more than $489 million generally have vital businesses and see a significant rate of growth, although today's economic downturn, growth has fallen below the double digits on average (though not in Asia)

https://www.worldwealthreport.com/Gl...ealth-Expanded

A growth of 4.2% per year means these individuals add $20 million per year to their asset base on average. If we take the top 5% - they add more than the $40 million they may spend.

This means that if new adventures may be provided at this price point, they will be purchased at this price point every few years, which fits well with the synodic period to Mars!

In fact, an investment programme through a major brokerage house can be imagined that attract and cater to this $489 million and more club - and arrange to manage their affairs so that the purchase price is relatively painless.

The advantage to companies like SpaceX and Bigelow, is that they can be assured of clients and they don't have to enter the conventional advertising market in ways that clients may find troubling. That is, privacy can be assured and publicity controlled.

That is, you don't see advertising on TV or in the media for BBJ or luxury yachts the way you do Toyota SUVs and fishing boats.

The revenue is used to develop advanced life support, and biosuits.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FbazOdEQxuE

Beyond LEO - a Dragon Capsule, outfitted with a kick stage consisting principally of hypergolic propellant tank plumbed to the landing engine, take seven people (1 crew and six passengers) to the vicinity of the moon, from the space station.

Once in Lunar Orbit, crew and passengers hop down to the lunar surface and back to orbit, using rocket belts. This is the way to get the most bang for the buck. A B330 module may be part of this adventure. Equipped and readied at the space station, and moved into Trans Lunar Injection with a boost from Dragon Capsule rocket.

http://www.wired.com/2013/07/lunar-flying-units-1969/

This would be awesome! Wingsuit training, training at the ISS in LEO and diving from orbit to the surface, would all be fabulously popular - and set the stage for expanded lunar exploration

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rnvvsjstveM

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FHtvDA0W34I

And a trial run for a Mars mission.

http://www.spacefuture.com/archive/t..._company.shtml

Arriving at Diemos, and using a rocket belt to land on the red planet and return to the mission module in Mars orbit - providing multiple landings at multiple sites - that are of real interest to travelers.

http://www.express.co.uk/news/weird/...the-Red-Planet

http://www.express.co.uk/news/weird/...urface-of-Mars

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencete...rees-Mars.html