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Old April 7th 07, 01:52 PM posted to sci.space.policy
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Default Wernher von Braun: Americans could land on Mars as early as 1982

http://www.astronautix.com/craft/vonn1952.htm

He thought we could go to Mars by 1965. And before that, 1960. Like
he told Kennedy, the only thing we lack is the will to do it.

Actually, if we folded togethrer the Moonbase called for in project
Horizon

http://www.astronautix.com/craft/hornlerv.htm
http://www.astronautix.com/craft/vonander.htm

and Mars expedition, we could have had both well before 1965.

This would have captured the hearts and minds of every young person on
Earth and combined with artistic and spiritual insights of the
returning population of folks from the frontier, would have informed
and enlightened the 20th century.

Had Truman or Eisenhower agreed to spend $40 billion (1947 dollars)
from 1947 through 1957 we could have had a temporary outpost on Mars
and a permanent settlement on the moon and likely wouldn't have had an
energy shortage (powersats by 1965) in the 1970s or fallen behind the
Japanese and Germans in consumer electronics design and innovation
(advanced AI/robotics/communications)

By comparison, the US government still on a war footing following the
end of World War 2 and the Korean War (Cold War) spent over $2,000
billion (1947 dollars) building tens of thousands nuclear weapons and
tens of thousands long range rockets and the support infrastructure
for them. .

A civilian program focused on the goals von Braun outlined would have
created a world where the US was still the dominant economic player in
the world, where our dollar was still strong,backed by an immense
productive and creative capacity, and with the fall of the Soviet
Union, we . Continued spending at the $4 billion (1947 dollars) per
year through 2000 (as opposed to $100 billion per year (1947 dollars)
for nuclear rocket forces) would have produced an aerospace
infrastructure very much like that shown in the move 2001: A Space
Odyssey.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2001:_A..._Odyssey_(film)

And the US wouldn't need a star wars style space shield because a
rocket base on the moon, days away by rocket, would be impervious to a
first strike, and in conjunction with later deployment of advanced
space sensing, space communications and non nuclear kinetic kill
vehicles on orbit supporting remotely controlled robot soldiers would,
provide the basis to enforce a US dominated global peace though
military police and emergency services support world wide.

The only thing that's different between today and 1947 is that the US
is far weaker economically, politically, and technologically today
than we were then. So, our ability to maintain control and benefit
assymetrically from growth in space - so as to maintain a geopolitical
climate favorable to US dominance is severely eroded. In fact, a
dmoninant US is today seen as an undesireable goal generally outside
the US. So, US dominance if pursued at all is pursued quietly through
covert means. It is interesting that those who worried the most about
the US spending too much on space were worried about the impact of
space spending on the US economy and US tehnical leadership.

If the number of US aerospace engineers were 200,000 instead of 2,000
- and we had spent the past half century settling the solar system,the
US would be in far better shape today in every way than we currently
find ourselves.

Ha. That's why kids wondering if we can go to Mars by 2020 **** me
off. The short answer is no. We've ruined our economy by not paying
attention to fundamentals and given the keys to our kingdom to people
in China, Japan, Europe, and provided absolutely no visionary
leadership for our youth for two generations.

That's what we get for putting the industrialists and military in
charge of our long-term strategic planning.