On 2019-08-30 8:57 PM, wrote:
On Thursday, August 29, 2019 at 9:12:20 AM UTC-4, David Spain wrote:
Look I'm not trying to be a Debbie Downer here. Just trying to figure
how you get from Point A to Point B. I love the idea of VBS and the
follow-on Spaceport. I just don't see what economics drive it unless you
have something else really big going on in space. Like a big mining
operation, or a powersat operation, a lunar base or something else.... A
station like this won't exist just because you can build it. This is not
build it and they will come. In 2019, space is still a highly 'vertical'
business if you pardon the pun. Maybe in 2119 things will be different?
Personally I'm hoping VBS or something similar happens by *no later than
2060*, perhaps as early as 2030-2040, but I'm an optimist. But in 2019?
I don't see it as viable.

Dave

Atom computers built in low g opens the world of ultrafast
computation. good for encryption cracking and physics computation.

The world of molecular theory for use in cancer therapy
also benefits.

Sure I can see some of that. When the heavy lithography equipment can be
moved into space economically. Problem is that kind of gear also needs
incredible stability. I've seen these machines and know that for even
those that only worked in the sub-micron dimensions (let alone 40nm or
less these days) they were mounted on pedestals that were separate from
the building foundations they were housed in and went all the way down
to bedrock to anchor them from even the minutest vibration that would
destroy the lithography. How does that map to a rotating space station?
I suspect novel manufacturing techniques are needed to do space
electronics that largely don't exist today. So maybe in 50-60 years? Or
I'm an optimist so maybe 30 years?

Molecular biology has a better chance of getting into space quickly.
There has been a lot of work done on this and on process at the ISS
already. I'd put that on a faster track. Maybe 20-30 years out for a
major pharma mfg. site. But a dedicated lab could be built into a
Starship to do that just as well and bring the product back down to
Earth for sale with no added infrastructure. Since Starships will exist
before a VBS, again I ask, how to I get from A-B?

Dave