William Mook wrote:

To understand the culture we must understand the technology involved. So, let's look at that first.

SpaceX plans a super-heavy lift launch vehicle as part of its Interplanetary Transport System. Variants the basic reusable two stage to orbit vehicle will place

300 metric tons (660,000 lb) in reusable-mode.
550 metric tons (1,210,000 lb) in expendable-mode
380 metric tons (840,000 lb) of propellant with an ITS tanker upper stage

—to low Earth orbit.


So far so good. But, as usual, Mookie then spirals off into bootless
speculation.


Each vehicle is likely to cost around $250 mililon in current dollars, at $3075 per kg of structure and about $1 million per launch in current dollars, at $82 per metric ton for LOX/LNG propellants. With 2,500 launches per vehicle - that's another $100,000 per launch replacement cost - another $400,000 per launch for maintenance.


There is no foundation for these cost 'guestimates'.


The 550 metric ton expendable part is put into orbit. You then fuel it with one to three tanker launches, depending on destination and timing. You then put up the crew with the reusable vehicle. That's three to five launches.


There is no 'expendable' part.


Now 105 people, 6 stewards and 4 crew members with cargo, mass 26
metric tons. So, scaling that to 300 metric tons translates to 1210
passengers, 70 stewards/service, 46 crew.


No. Each Transporter can deliver 100 tonnes of 'stuff' to Mars or 100
passengers. You don't get to stack the passengers in like cordwood
and you're overestimating cargo to Mars by over 3x and underestimating
mass per passenger by 4x.


Now, the 550 metric ton expendable is $1.7 billion - $1.40 million per passenger. This is all the stuff people need to survive on Mars long-term.


No. If you are sending along everything in the Transporter that those
people "need to survive on Mars long term", your number of passengers
drops down to 10-15 and the rest of the 100 tonnes to Mars surface
becomes equipment. Musk foresees the first launches only carrying a
dozen or so people and the rest being cargo. Later on, he sees 9-10
cargo launches for every launch with passengers. HIS number make it
pretty clear that getting them to Mars surface takes around 1 tonne
per passenger and around 9 tonnes of other 'stuff' for them to survive
long term once they get there.

On to more bootless speculation...


Five launches add $7.5 million to this total for operating costs- $6,200 per passenger.


550 ton payload

1,911 ton upper stage propellant
115 ton upper stage structure
2,576 ton upper stage total

9,389 ton lower stage propellant
696 ton lower stage structure
12,661 ton take off weight

WIth three launch centres and a one week turn around, we have 3 launches per week - and over a 52 week period 156 ships will be launched. With 1,210 passengers per ship this is 188,760 people per year.


You don't have three launch centers, you can't turn them around in a
week, You can't launch 3 of them a week, you're not going to keep
launching over a 52 week period, 75% of the launches are for FUEL
TANKERS, you're estimating 11x more passengers per ship than you can
get to Mars...

More bootless speculation, along with Mook's usual assumption of
magical technologies that don't exist.


Now a synodic period is 2.15 years. And over this period 405,834 people will be launched into space. Now, it takes 3 to 4 months to get to Mars, depending on the details of when you launch. It takes over a year to get to the asteroid belt. When you get to Mars, or the asteroids, you will stay there indefinitely. So, you will have hardware to keep you alive indefinitely. So, people will launch into orbit - and wait until the planets align - and then depart. Those who launch early in the synodic cycle, pay less. Those who launch later, pay more. Those with spots may trade those spots with others for a premium - and take the next flight. So, there will be an active market in this sort of thing going forward.

$1.4 million per passenger, is quite a bit to pay. However, you're buying an advanced technology home that supplies you with all you need - using advanced technology! People would pay that to have a home like that on Earth. Unfortunately, people that do that must deal with local politics and government. Not to say that government is bad, but some governments from time to time make things difficult for everyone. So, that's one reason people will leave.

How many people have a spare $1.4 million to spend? Well, according to the World Wealth Report there are 15 million HNWI (High Net Worth Individuals) - those worth $3 million or more; and 108,000 those worth $30 million or more (UHNWI - Ultra High Net Worth Individuals).

HNWI Wealth Distribution

Region-------- HNWI Population HNWI Wealth

Global-------- 12.00 million $46.2 trillion
North America 3.73 million $12.7 trillion
Asia-Pacific--- 3.68 million $12.0 trillion
Europe-------- 3.41 million $10.9 trillion
Latin America-- 0.52 million $7.5 trillion
Middle East--- 0.49 million $1.8 trillion
Africa--------- 0.14 million $1.3 trillion

188,760 per year represent a market penetration of 1.25% per year - an easily sustainable figure across this population. Paying stewards and crew members - with Mars based housing costing everyone else $1.4 million each plus a little cash - provides a means for people without means to go to Mars and the asteroids and other planets.


And this is the biggest bit of silliness in your whole imaginary
'business case'. It's not you overestimating the passengers per ship
by 11x. It's not you underestimating the mass per passenger by 4x.
It's not you overestimating the mass per ship by 3x. It's not even
the magic house. It's the question of why these people would go to
Mars

The idea that you're going to get over 1% of this group PER YEAR to
decide to go is, well, ridiculous. You'll be lucky to get that
percentage TOTAL out of this group. What is their incentive to go?
Simply because you can multiply? Your estimates give a colony of 2
million in just a decade. Sane people think it will take a century to
get to something half that size.

snip remaining Mookery


--
"Ordinarily he is insane. But he has lucid moments when he is
only stupid."
-- Heinrich Heine