In article ,
says...

On Thursday, July 25, 2019 at 6:46:32 AM UTC-5, David Spain wrote:
On 7/24/2019 8:07 PM, Scott Kozel wrote:
Anyone want to predict whether this will actually happen in 2024?
It would be interesting for sure.


I'd say improbable... Forgetting minor nits such as the lack of a lander
and lunar EVA suits...

It'll be interesting to see if they actually have a working upper stage
for Block 1 SLS, let alone reliable.

If the Delta III experience of DCSS is any indication of a forerunner
for ICPS...

"The DCSS first flew on 3 Delta IIIs, and failed 2 of 2 times. The
booster failed on the third flight, causing the loss of the DCSS before
ignitions." ..and..

"The Interim Cryogenic Propulsion Stage (ICPS), a modified 5?meter DCSS,
will fly as the upper stage of NASA's Block 1 Space Launch System.[3]
Artemis 1, the first flight, is scheduled for late 2020."

From:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Delta_...c_Second_Stage

A 2nd stage failure would certainly be basis for program delays.

In addition to having a lander and EVA suits designed and built, need
to have some recent experience in using them, including with current
astronauts.

Also need recent experience with rendezvous and docking, including with
current astronauts.

We already have that with commercial crew. Also, computers are so much
better than they were in the 60s, much of rendezvous and docking is
automated. This was demonstrated on the first, uncrewed, Dragon 2
mission to ISS. Mostly the astronauts just monitored Dragon 2 as it
approached ISS and docked.

Honestly, the equations aren't *that* hard. I know a guy who used to
help write the Rendezvous and Proximity Operations (RPOP) software for
use on laptops during the space shuttle program. That sort of software
is now built into the flight control system of new vehicles that are
designed to autonomously rendezvous and dock.

Jeff
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