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Old November 20th 17, 06:30 AM posted to sci.space.policy
Fred J. McCall[_3_]
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Default China wants to catch up to US rockets in 2020 and then get nuclear spaceships in 2045

William Mook wrote:

On Monday, November 20, 2017 at 12:56:06 AM UTC+13, Fred J. McCall wrote:
William Mook wrote:

There are two reasons China signals and then disappears from the radar screen;

(1) economic caution,
(2) geopolitical caution,


In other words, as I said, they talk big plans and then don't deliver
on them.


They tell the world they will build 40 aircraft carriers and build one - when they plan to build one - so the world does not fear them.


In other words, as I said, they talk big plans and then don't deliver
on them.




This does not mean they do not make progress. On the contrary, their progress is steady and inexorable thus far and they have outclassed the USA in many respects in ways that do not threaten the USA.


So they 'outclass' us in things we can't be bothered to shine at?


They outclass the United States in nearly every essential measure that they have identified as being important to them. The USA hasn't bothered to even think about what is important to its survival. This means China is well ahead in technical as well as non-technical factors. Beyond technology where China surpasses the USA in terms of trained people and quality of capital equipment.


What utter poppycock!


We are in debt, they have a surplus, they have all the tools in their physical control, we do not, they have their population behind them, we do not, we have over-reached our military abilities, they have not.


They're a local power. We are not.


The quality of Chinese graduate students is legendary in the USA. Nearly 20% of all graduate positions, and the top 20% of the graduate population, are uniformly Chinese. Many of these return to China bearing great knowledge, often after working in US industry, US Space and US military programmes.


Absolutely wrong.


Obviously you have never looked at the names of those top 20% of all graduate classes in engineering and science.


Obviously neither have you. You have also never looked at the
difference between having an Asian sounding name and being Chinese.
Again, there are around 150,000 graduate students from China at
various US schools. There are 1.75 million graduate students in total
at various US schools. Take your shoes off and calculate what 20% of
1.75 million is.



There are around 150,000 Chinese graduate students
enrolled at various schools in the US. The graduate school population
is around 1.75 million. Pretty sure 150,000 isn't 20% of 1.75
million.


http://www.nber.org/digest/jan05/w10554.html

In 1966 US born white males received 71% of science and engineering Phds. By the year 2000 it was just 35%.

By the year 2000 US born white males received just 35% of science and engineering PhDs, while 25% of those doctorates were awarded to females, 39% to foreign-born students.


And a small number awarded to Chinese.

Are you getting confused and switching back and forth
between counting 'ethnic Chinese' and 'Chinese by nationality'?

snip meaningless trade numbers


Funny that somone is so confused about the numbers he quotes projects that confusion on to others.


You want to try that again in comprehensible English?




Yet, if you want to know where the Chinese are in their nuclear programmes, just look at the aircraft carrier programme and their nuclear submarine programme and their nuclear power programme.


They have no nuclear aircraft carriers and no plans for any that I'm
aware of.


They plan 6 and 2 of these will be nuclear.

https://www.huffingtonpost.com/asiat..._11164324.html


The article is on its ass. It says 4 conventional and 2 nuclear
carriers by 2025. It currently has ONE conventional carrier (Type
001) and a second (Type 001A) working toward being commissioned in
around 2020. The first of the larger Type 002 carriers is currently
under construction and will enter service around 2023. Their first
nuclear carrier is just a gleam in some folks' eyes at the current
time and it's unlikely to commission before 2030 even on a
preposterously aggressive schedule. The Type 001A looks to take about
18 months to build from start of construction. The larger and more
complex Type 002 looks like it's going to take around 3 years. The
Type 003 certainly won't be any faster than that. It looks like it
takes China around 3 years once a carrier is launched to finish
fitting it and work it up to put it in commission.

What these numbers mean is that in 2025 China will have PERHAPS 4
conventional carriers in commission (more likely 3) and no nuclear
carriers at all. It takes 6-7 years from the start of bending metal
to getting a carrier in commission, so if it's not under construction
today it probably won't be in the Chinese fleet by 2025.


Their next carrier will apparently be something the size of
the UK's QUEEN ELISABETH. Regardless, marine propulsion reactors and
power reactors have NOTHING to do with nuclear rocket engines.


Dead wrong. The skill sets required to compound engineer and handle weapons grade fissile materials to form nuclear rockets and nuclear navy reactors have much in common. That's why AEC and Los Alamos Labs took the lead in NERVA development in 1957. It is the road map China will follow for a successful programme in their country.

http://www.astronautix.com/n/nerva.html


Bull****. The physics may be the same but the engineering is
radically different.


China outclasses the USA in computing, while US investors own designs and hardware, virtually all the wafer fab capacity America owns resides in Asia.


But not in Mainland China. I think a number of companies will be
surprised to find that their major fabs are in Asia, whether you're
talking Mainland China or all of Asia.

snip usual self-congratulatory MookSpew


On Saturday, November 18, 2017 at 11:51:27 PM UTC+13, Fred J. McCall wrote:
wrote:

"China plans a fleet of nuclear carrier rockets and reusable hybrid-power carriers by the
mid-2040s. They will be ready for regular, large scale interplanetary flights, and carrying
out commercial exploration and exploitation of natural resources by the mid-2040s.

China plans to catch up with the United States on conventional rocket technology by
2020.

If Spacex and Elon Musk achieve fully reusable rockets with the Falcon 9 or the BFR in
the 2020-2022 timeframe then China would be 13-15 years behind if they hit their
target for reusable rockets in 2035.

By 2030, China will put astronauts on the moon and bring samples back from Mars."

See:

https://www.nextbigfuture.com/2017/1...s-in-2045.html


China frequently 'plans' things that it just can't execute. They
'planned' to build 20 aircraft carriers in 20 years, too. They built
one.

I don't understand why nuclear thermal rockets are 'necessary'.


Then read the analysis I provided which was elided here.


You don't do 'analysis'. You don't know the meaning of the word.


An all chemical Long March 9 rocket will put 130 tonnes into LEO.


An all chemical Long March 9 rocket doesn't exist and so will put 0
tonnes into LEO. Studies don't boost payload. Rockets do.


Replace the chemical second stage with a Nerva style second stage, and that rises to over 300 tonnes on orbit, and over 100 tonnes on the moon and back.


Nobody said they weren't USEFUL. I said they weren't NECESSARY for
fast trips to Mars and they are not.

snip Mookie's Chinese Love Affair


--
"Some people get lost in thought because it's such unfamiliar
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