In article . com,
says...

On 2017-10-25 07:13, Jeff Findley wrote:

On top of that, both SpaceX and Blue Origin are pursuing reusability
with a tenacity never before seen in the industry (space shuttle SRBs
and orbiters were refurbished after flight over many months, so they
don't really count). That will be the next step towards even cheaper
access to space.


In fairness, SpaceX is likely at the same stage now that NASA was when
it had flown a Suttle orbiter 2 or 3 times. Doing costly turn-around
examinations in order to gauge how much work will really be needed in
the future.

Not at all. The first turn-around cost SpaceX much less than half the
cost of building a new one. That was not true of shuttle SRBs which
cost about as much to refurbish the steel segments as it would have cost
to simply build new steel segments. SRB refurbishment was *always*
hideously expensive and time consuming. SpaceX is now starting to build
Block 5 first stages which incorporate improvements which will enhance
reusability, so costs will continue to drop.

Until it has reflown enough stages, AND SpaceX releases some number of
the work/costs involved in turning stages around "in production", nobody
outside of SpaceX know how cost effective turning stages around is.

Again, SpaceX has publicly stated the first reuse of a first stage cost
less than half the cost of building a new one. That's significant and
will only get better with time and changes to the hardware (e.g. Block
5).

It may very well be a no brainer either way (eg: 50% cheaper than new
stages or 75% cheaper than new stages ) So the question becomes how MUCH
will SpaceX revolutionlize launch industry, not whether it will or not.

This I can agree with. SpaceX already has very low prices even before
taking into account reuse.

But there is one extremely important point that you have not mentioned.
Customers are already choosing to fly on refurbished first stages
because it gets their payloads in orbit faster than waiting for a new
first stage to be built. Time is money to a satellite company since a
comsat makes zero revenue sitting on the ground waiting to be launched.
See the news stories this week and last.

Assuming a fixed production rate, reuse gets payloads into space faster
than building new stages. Reuse also will improve reliability in the
long term due to inspections and subsequent hardware improvements.
These are both secondary effects but both help to lower overall costs to
the customer.

Jeff
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