william mook wrote in message
om...

As we invest in space transport technology the cost of imparting
momentum to payloads will decrease. As the cost decreases, the things
we can do in space will increase. As we move up the momentum curve
the Earth's surface will be the natural point of reference for
humanity since that is where the bulk of people now live and will
likely continue to live for the next century or so.

Well past the next century there will be more people living off-world
than not. At that point there will be a sea-change in the way people
think about their place in the cosmos.

But, prior to this shift we can see several clearly delineated epochs
in the evolution of space travel for humanity - all referenced to
Earth's surface;

(1) Suborbital - ballistic missiles - 1950
(2) Orbital - communications/weather/spy/nav satellites - 1960
(3) Cislunar - piloted travel to orbit - moonships - powersats - 1970
(4) Interplanetary - asteroid capture - colonies - factorysats - hold

Then, as the cost of momentum continues to decrease (assuming the hold
on continuing development is released at some point in the future) we
can see that an expansion of the powersat capacity combined with laser
driven micro-mechanical rocket arrays - will result in broad access to
low-cost easy to use rockets that will permit broad access to high
momenta. This will result in a repeat of the development curve above,
but on a broad scale;

(5) Suborbital - ballistic package delivery & passenger service -
(6) Orbital - wide access to orbit - spacehome
(7) Cislunar - industrial access to orbit from Earth
(8) Interplanetary - roving spacehome - end of dominance of Earth
surface

Since space access transcends Earth, each development along the arc
described above will be viewed by Earthbound populations as
transcending Earth - affecting everyone on Earth equally. So,
politically, these space travel developments will be result in
worldwide changes which include;

(1) Global peace to avoid global thermonuclear war
(2) Global communications and sensing network
(3) Global power delivery
(4) Global resource and product delivery
(5) Global ballistic transport
(6) Global access to space

At this point, humanity's reference changes from Earth surface to
spacehome and the relation of one's spacehome to relevant resources
and other points of interest.

As the cost of momentum continues to decline - by moving from laser
driven rockets - with lasers powered by sunlight - to laser driven
lightsails - the range and power of humanity's spaceflight
infrastructure will continue to increase until ultimately, first space
probes, then piloted space flight, then space industry, and
ultimately, space settlements, spread beyond the Solar System to
encompass the Oort Cloud and the stars beyond.

(7) Interstellar travel

As momenta increases, and the network of laser light driven highways
extend from star to star - along with a network of radio telescopes
beaming an interstellar transfer protocol from star to star - humanity
will continue to develop improvements.

During this period there will be a cloud of vehicles expanding out
from Sol at 1/4 light speed. There will first be autonomous probes
that report their findings back to 'human space'. From these findings
detailed physical models are built, and humans along with AI determine
what might be possible with the newly discovered information and the
resources it represents. The probes will be followed by human and
robotic explorers. Next, will come industrial infrastructure.
Ultimately, space homes arrive in the developing star system.

Within the next 300 years, perhaps sooner, a group of nearby stars
that have been recently settled will engage in an experiment of great
potential. They will use their laser light sail capacity to
accelerate large shaped masses of a specific isotope of Iron to 1/3
light speed - and cause these masses to collied in very precise ways.
Their hopewith this experiment is to create synthetic black holes.

Once this is successful, the black holes will be studied carefully to
determine details about the nature of spacetime and the quantum nature
of spacetime.

Then production methods will be varied to produce a variety of
temporal and spatial effects - humanity will have entered the period
of gravitic engineering.

(8) Gravitic Engineering

Some of the results of these experiments could include;

(a) Anti gravity
(b) Mass energy conversion through Hawking radiation
(c) Space drive (up to light speed)
(d) Decay of vacuum (as energy and momentum source)
(e) Time travel
(f) Temporal logic and communications circuits
(g) Faster than light travel

If collections of black hole 'dusts' can be coordinated to stamp out
new black hole collections from the vacuum - then its theoretically
possible to create a self-replicating black hole driven machine that
can be made in any quantity. This has the practical business
implication that gravitic technology while starting out as the most
expensive sort of activity in the history of mankind, will quickly
drop in price to zero - and be widely used by all humans after.

Another unusual aspect -beyond broad use of any practical technology
due to low cost- is the very high mass, energy and information density
of the resulting devices. Complete systems while very massive and
complex, have components that are smaller than the nuclei of atoms!
This means that the technology will very likely be invisible and the
devices themselves carried on the surface, or within, the people using
them. That is, they would be viewed as properties of someone who had
the technology. Someone who had access to this technology would just
be someone who could do things impossible for others.

With superluminal travel and time travel technology available to
humanity, all of the cosmos, in both space and time, are available to
humanity at this point.

The practical consequence of all of this depends on the nature of
humanity. One of the central finding of population dynamics is that
as the standard of living rises, the rate of population growth
declines. This means that somewhere around (4) above, population
growth will peak between 8 and 10 billion people. When those people
leave Earth at (6) - the density of human population will decrease.
With an average separation of 5 light years, and an expansion rate of
1/4 light speed, and a constant number of humans around, we can see
that the density of humans in the cosmos will fall over the course of
early interstellar exploration. Once humanity can move anywhere
instantly after (8) the practical consequence of this is that the
density of humans will approximate zero throughout the cosmos - as
information and people and resources move instantly anywhere anywhen
they're desired.

Assuming other intelligence in the cosmos follows similar
developmental paths, this last result explains where all the aliens
are! They're out there, but their average density throughout the
cosmos is zero!

"In my Father's House are many mansions; if it was not so,
I would have told you."

--
John Thomas Maxson, Retired Engineer (Aerospace)
Author, The Betrayal of Mission 51-L (www.mission51l.com)