In article ,
says...

They're taking a calculated risk. On one hand, Soyuz has flown for half a
century with only a few mishaps. On the other hand, not flying means risking
the $100 ISS in case something goes wrong and there's no crew on board to
fix it.

So I believe the risk taking is justifiable.

Look at the data. Soyuz 2, the latest Soyuz variant, has a failure rate
of about 8%, which is dismal for launch vehicle reliability.

In addition to the recent Soyuz launch failure of a crewed Soyuz
capsule, no less than three Progress vehicles have failed to make it to
ISS due to Soyuz launch vehicle failures.

If you look at the data over the last 20 years or so, it sure looks like
Russian launch reliability has been slipping. It's only a matter of
time before they lose a Soyuz vessel with its crew on board, IMHO.

Jeff
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