An attempt at a simple algorithm to quantify where SpaceX is going, and how
successful they might be.

SpaceX...
http://www.spacex.com/company.php
....Established in 2002 by Elon Musk , the founder of PayPal and the Zip2
Corporation...

Mr. Musk made his money in the real world, PayPal, Zip2 Corp and is
continuing his adventure through life with a journey to Near Space. Which
brings him into contact with a totally different world, that of NASA, DOD,
government contracting, a made up fantasy world where real world concepts
may not apply. The successful businesses in the fantasy world created by
the government are Boeing and Lock..., who pretty figured out how to keep
the revenue streams flowing their way.

Mr. Musk was extremely successful in his real world adventure, has plenty of
capital has made a good start, but has chosen an industry where his real
world skills may not apply. An example of this might be profit models,
capitalist profit models that made PayPal so successful may be of no help
when contracting in the fantasy world of regulated profits (6%) in a
capital intensive industry (and using his own capital) where the standard
is to invest nothing and get payed for everything you do, plus 6%.

Is he truely going to revolutionize the industry and have another PayPal,
SpaceX public offering, and ride a Wave Bigger than the Internet Craze? Or,
fall by the wayside like Orbital Sciences, sucked into the Tar Baby that
lives in the fantasy world of Government Contracting?

Right now, my poor attempt at a simple model to see where he's going doesn't
look too promising, but it does head in the right direction with the last
manifested flight. The model simply adds one for every manifested flight in
the real world, and minus one for manifested flight in the fantasy world of
Government Contracting. With each and every contract in this fantasy world
there is risk of doing business their way instead of the PayPal way.

To buy, or not to buy. That is the ?Question?, when SpaceX goes public.

--
Craig Fink
Courtesy E-Mail Welcome @
--

Joe Strout wrote:

In article nk.net,
Craig Fink wrote:

FALCON DemoFlight 1* Q1 2006 Falcon 1 Kwajalein
+0
FALCON DemoFlight 2 Q1 2007 Falcon 1 Kwajalein
+0
OSD/NRL Q3 2007 Falcon 1 Kwajalein
-1
ATSB (Malaysia) Q4 2007 Falcon 1 Kwajalein
+1
US Government Q2 2008 Falcon 9 Cape/Kwajalein
-1
MDA Corp (Canada) Q2 2008 Falcon 9 Cape/Kwajalein
+1
NASA ? Demo 1 Q3 2008 Falcon 9 Cape/Kwajalein
-1
SpaceDev Q1 2009 Falcon 1 Vandenberg
+1
NASA ? Demo 2 Q2 2009 Falcon 9 Cape/Kwajalein
-1
MDA Corp (Canada) Q3 2009 Falcon 1 Vandenberg
+1
NASA ? Demo 3 Q3 2009 Falcon 9 Cape/Kwajalein
-1
Swedish Space Corp Q4 2009 Falcon 1 Vandenberg
+1
Bigelow Aerospace Q3 2010 Falcon 9 Cape/Kwajalein
+1 = ????????

Mostly negative, with a plan to end up positive.

OK, I give. I see this is the SpaceX launch manifest, but what do the
numbers represent?