In message , Bryan J. Maloney
writes
Martin Brown abagooba zoink larblortch
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However, as a Bayesian I have a methodology that allows me to use every
last shred of evidence - including our own existence. Our existence is
perfectly good evidence that there is at least one planet in the

At least one. Absolutely true. Now show me evidence that there are at
least TWO.

I can't. And equally you cannot prove to me that a second does not
exist.

But I can still compute a function describing the probability
distribution of believing in the probability of a second example being
found P(P(life)) given all the available data. That is in essence what
Bayesian statistics does. And it is not hamstrung by the N=1 situation.

It has certain nasty properties with such very limited data. Most
notably that it cannot be normalised so the variance in any individual
estimate P(life) is infinite. However, it represents accurately our
current state of knowledge.

Regards,
--
Martin Brown