If the grounding of Soyuz rockets forces crews to abandon the
International Space Station even temporarily, the chances of losing
the facility outright skyrocket the longer it goes unmanned, Florida
Today reports.


NASA International Space Station Program Manager Mike Suffred says
evacuation is a distinct possibility in mid-November if Russian Soyuz
rockets are not flying, writes Florida Today's Todd Halvorson.


Past NASA risk assessment shows a one in 10 chance of losing the
station within six months if there is no crew aboard to handle
critical system failures. That soars to a 50% probability if it
remains crewless for a year, the newspaper says.


The International Space Station has been continuously staffed since
the first expedition crew opened the outpost in November 2000.




In a worst-case scenario, station systems could fail, making it
impossible for engineers on the ground to maintain remote control of
the 1 million-pound outpost.

In that case, the station eventually would make an uncontrolled re-
entry, potentially showering flaming wreckage on populated areas, says
Florida Today, USA TODAY's sister publication.



The issue is acute as Russian experts try to figure out why a Soyuz
rocket failed last week, sending an unmanned Progress supply ship
crashing into Siberia.

Russia's Soyuz rocket is the only means of ferrying supplies and crew
to the station now that the U.S. space shuttle missions have ended.

Plans to send a fresh crew to the station Sept. 21 have been postponed
indefinitely, and the return of three crewmembers Sept. 8 has been
delayed for at least week.

Complicating the problem is the imminent "expiration date" for the two
Soyuz spacecraft docked with the station. They are not certified to
stay longer than 200 days in space.

By juggling schedules, a crew could remain onboard until late
December, although that would mean a landing during brutally cold
weather in Kazakhstan around Christmas.

yeah fred abandonmg ISS is no safety issue at all