"Rand Simberg" wrote in message
...
On Tue, 14 Oct 2003 18:27:01 CST, in a place far, far away, "Dave
Downing" made the phosphor on my monitor
glow in such a way as to indicate that:

Ok, this could be a tricky one!

Assuming China makes it to become the third nation to successfully orbit
humans, who does the group think will be next?

Note, I am thinking of national efforts at orbiting rather than private
sub-orbital launches eg X-Prize. I am not aware of anyone else making
firm plans yet. Time for some interesting specualative discussion!

In the absence of any other information, India.

--
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interglobal space lines * 307 733-1715 (Fax) http://www.interglobal.org

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India has the technical ability but a pretty limited budget. Looking at
ISRO's Decade plan shows some interesting developments in the future, but
nothing as dramatic as a manned space program . If the GSLV proves reliable
though, then the launch market might get even tighter some years down the
road. Still, they could always send someone up in a "Mercury-ish" can and
then retrieve them. Maybe they could get ham's to volunteer worldwide for
tracking.

I would think that Japan might be the nation to watch, with the agencies
being combined into JAXA. Japan has proven orbital recovery (OREX), and
automatic landing (AFLEX). Work continues on Hope-X. Hope-X could
conveivably be converted to carry a human, if Japan wants to enter the
prestige race.

Rev. Jon