(Derek Lyons) wrote in message ...
h (Rand Simberg) wrote:
Fox: "In avoiding risk, we almost ensure failure." In some ways,
that's the most important message.

And of course, the Langley vs Wright theme (analogy with government
versus private theme) prevailed throughout.

Hyman Rickover may debate you on that. The conspicuous *lack* of
failure in Naval Reactors compared with the well documented
failures[1] of commercial reactors provides an interesting counterpart
to your themes.

frickin' nukes. Always worshipping at the altar of Hyman G. The point
wasn't really a government vs. private thing, it's a focused,
incremental effort thing vs. a 'perfect end product on the first try'
thing. Both government and private programs are easily capable of
selling out this way.

Actually Rickover probably would have gotten on exceptionally well
with the Wrights, as they approached difficult engineering problems
following the same basic steps:
1. identify a moderately ambitious goal. For rickover it was a safe,
working reactor. For the Wrights it was a working airplane.
2. postulate a design to meet that goal. The Wrights sketched out a
rectangular glider with propellers. Rickover sketched out a working
reactor design.
3. analyze smaller, less risky versions of that design to find flaws.
The Wrights built & tested different airfoils, as well as smaller,
unpowered humn gliders. Rickover's program analyzed non nuclear
versions of their design to thermal, hydraulic, and material
properties. They invented new methods of testing metal samples to
determine vessel strength.
4. Figure out the underlying scientific cause of these flaws. If
insufficient scientific knowledge exists, create small scale
experiments to provide the necessary data. Numerous examples from the
Wrights, including insufficient propeller force (the wrights designed
a more efficient propeller), too much engine weight (The wrights
developed a engine 4 times lighter per horsepower than any previous),
unstable turns (wrights developed coordinated rudder/bank turn).
Rickover's program did countless experiements on metal samples and
non-nuclear heat exchangers to maximize their design effectiveness.
5. exercise excessive micromanagerial control over the end product to
ensure that compromises made do not compromise the overall design.
Rickover's micromanaging was legendary, but he kept the design as
simple as he wanted, which turned out best. The Wrights were obsessive
with details and secretive to the point that they were unable to turn
their revolution into a successful company.
6. build and test.

Tom Merkle