"Rand Simberg" wrote in message
...
On Wed, 13 Aug 2008 19:09:36 -0400, in a place far, far away,

So, do you not have any losing transactions?

I'm not leaving out any trades, and being completely honest
with the results.

But when I don't use a stop loss, sometimes I get burned pretty bad.
Always place a stop order after buying, and let the stop execute
if the price drops, and walk away. There's always another one
around the corner as you should be able to see~

Sometimes an unexpected event or news will come out just
after buying in, and the price can fall hard. Or you pick a pattern
that's about to go bankrupt by not doing your homework.
It's important to combine this specific pattern with a company
that seems to have little or no bad news to justify the big drop.

The big losses so far have all been more psychological in nature.
Once I get down say 20% in a bad mistake, I seem to insist
on getting that money back from 'that' stock, and just keep getting
deeper in the hole. The idea is to specialize, so that anyone
wandering into this pattern is in my 'backyard'. Once I start
trying to recover a loss from a broken pattern, I'm in someone
else's specialty and get my tail kicked over and over.
I just spent a month playing ticker rdn and must have lost 8 grand
chasing it all the way down. I can't believe I did that.
I didn't use a stop loss, got way behind and couldn't walk away.

But I'm getting better at it, I intend to do at least 10 of these
publicly. I intend to hit on every one. The first quarter of this
year I did 20 trades.

13 were winners averaging 8% each
2 were losers averaging -2% each
5 were ties. I averaged 8% a week
for the three months.

For the abstract minded out there. It should be a source
of curiosity how entirely different kinds of companies
(initial conditions) can produce behavior (output) that
is entirely....identical.

What is the source of this universal behavior?
Or, under what conditions can cause ...any...
complex adaptive system to behave in a
universal way?

TOWARD THE 'EDGE METHODOLOGY' FOR COMPLEX
SYSTEMS SIMULATION

"How are we to simulate the "edge dynamics" of complex systems
whose "formulae" are unknown in detail? The first traditional step
of the edge behavior simulation is a mechanical junction of the
regular and chaotic images and attempts to simulate these images
of the edge dynamics. Such an understanding of the simulation
task is analogous to the situation in nonlinear mathematics until
R.May, T.Li, J.Yorke, M.Feigenbaum and their collegues
described the universal properties in the region of transition
to chaotic behavior."
http://www.calresco.org/milov/ymtemcss.htm


These patterns are all being driven far from equilibrium by outside
forces (lack of bad news). My pattern is the regular pre image.
The other pre image or chaotic pattern is one like ticker pro.
Those are the two static and chaotic behaviors which emerge
at the edge of chaos...at the brink for a stock chart.
All other edge state patterns are some combination of one
or the other pre images. This is a property of edge states.
Only two futures are possible once at the edge.

And it's the /rate/ at which the behavior approaches the edge
that shows which future is nearly certain. A single spike down
shows the big money has walked, and bankruptcy (chaos)
is pretty certain. The 45 degree and increasing slope shows
the little guys have walked, but the big guys are staying.
An edge state shows an outsider what the insiders are
doing.....Eureka!

For instance a ticker like fre has a slope that's /decreasing/
over time, those generally don't bounce much or can
continue falling.

But in the most abstract, this pattern is self organized, it's a chart
of a simple power law. And self organized patterns will continue
their behavior until it literally bangs into something. Such as running
out of sellers. Everyone that might sell...has. Or continue falling until
the price becomes too attractive.

As you can see, the bottom is easy to see and pretty reliable.
Calling a reliable bottom is the hardest thing to do in the market.

These are nothing more than an isolated thunderstorm placed
on a chart. The volatility builds until the peak (bottom) is
announced with a clap of thunder (volume), followed by
a brief rain shower (bounce). Once it's bounced, the sun
has gone down, the pattern is over. Time to look for
another storm.

They happen everyday somewhere in the market.
And nothing will ever change that. Not even telling
everyone.


s