On Wed, 22 Oct 2003 12:57:47 GMT, (Henry Spencer)
wrote:

In article .net,
algomeysa2 wrote:
"The risk you face of dying as a result of an asteroid impact is about 1 in
20,000, the same risk you face of dying in a plane crash. - Source:
Spaceguard Survey"

The fact that that's obviously a completely bogus statistic.....considering,
oh...... I can search the web and find many people who have died in plane
crashes, but, there's not one instance in recorded history of anyone dying
in an asteroid impact...... makes that rather suspect....

Depends on how long a period the number is averaged over. The chances of
dying from an asteroid impact tend to be dominated by extremely rare
events that kill a sizable fraction of the human race, so to check on that
statistic, you need a very long averaging period indeed -- recorded history
is much too short.

"Misleading" is a better word than "bogus".

Depending on whether Tunguska was a comet or an asteroid, there is a
finite probability that one or more people died from asteroid impact.
However, the death(s) would probably be unreported, as the victim(s)
would have been nomadic reindeer herders (Sami) or fur trappers or
other people unlikely to be reported missing.

Absence of evidence is not evidence of absence. However, in these
bureaucratic days it's easy to assume that such fatalities will be
reported. We're too accustomed to the way things are to be able to
appreciate how it was back when.

Mary

--
Mary Shafer Retired aerospace research engineer