Jordan wrote:

Sander Vesik wrote:
Yes, because its one of those outcomes of the test they are not going
to promise to repeat, especially not apparently not having finished
the kill vechicle software. Working once through luck in a particular
situation is no guarantee of repeatability.

Generally speaking, a type of weapon becomes _more_ accurate and
capable as it is developed, so I don't see why it would be surprising
for our ABM's to similarly improve in capability. There are some
exceptions (such as the disastrously flawed magetic exploder on our
early-WWII torpedoes compared to the earlier fuses) but such
degradations of capability through development are not the norm.

That doesn't preclude the one success being at a time when the chance of
that success is .1%.