Jake McGuire wrote:
Ian Stirling wrote:
Jordan wrote:
snip
Actually, under those circumstances, even conventional ICBM launches
might very well lead to total thermonuclear war. For one thing, we
would not be able to verify that a given launch was conventional until
_after_ it either hit or was intercepted. For another thing, our

Would it actually be possible - in the near term (no air sampling
planes, or ...) to tell if a given intercepted missile was nuclear?
Assuming it doesn't go off.

After a successful intercept the warhead should be pretty well
vaporized - maybe spectroscopic analysis of the debris cloud looking
for Pu/U? Seems like it ought to work, assuming you can see the
interception as it occurs (appropriate lighting conditions from the
ground and/or space-based sensors).

Spectroscopy of merely chunks of blown-apart warhead seems very chancy,
especially against the background of any explosives in there going off.

If you could guarantee that you could make it plasma, then maybe.

Hmm.
It's just occured that the impact velocity will likley exceed the typical
explosive velocity.
I don't suppose this is likely to cause a fizzle - unless it was a gun
type bomb barely subcritical.