Ian Stirling wrote:
Jordan wrote:
snip
Actually, under those circumstances, even conventional ICBM launches
might very well lead to total thermonuclear war. For one thing, we
would not be able to verify that a given launch was conventional until
_after_ it either hit or was intercepted. For another thing, our

Would it actually be possible - in the near term (no air sampling
planes, or ...) to tell if a given intercepted missile was nuclear?
Assuming it doesn't go off.

After a successful intercept the warhead should be pretty well
vaporized - maybe spectroscopic analysis of the debris cloud looking
for Pu/U? Seems like it ought to work, assuming you can see the
interception as it occurs (appropriate lighting conditions from the
ground and/or space-based sensors).

-jake