John Doe wrote in :

"Jorge R. Frank" wrote:
HTV isn't the only alternative. Out of the six finalists for NASA's
Commercial Orbital Transportation Services (COTS) program, four have
released at least some details on how their spacecraft will attach to
ISS - and all four (Rocketplane Kistler K-1, SpaceX Dragon, Spacehab
Apex, and t/Space CxV) have chosen the CBM.

OK, that looks great. But In reality, since we're not even sure that
CEV will ever get off the ground, why would anyone bet their life on
those neat little ideas floating around ?

Who's betting their life? Not me. Certainly not NASA.

And when could such neat little ideas materialise ? Any chance they
would be in production and fully operational by the time the shuttle
is retired ?

I don't know what the chances are. Neither do you. I do know the chances
are zero if the COTS program is not funded, and greater than zero if it is.

If not, then there will be a long period during which NASA and
partners will not be able to launch any object that cannot fit through
russian hatches.

Duh!

Are there any chances of HTV flying by 2010 ?

It depends on whether JAXA gets serious about developing the H-IIB. The H-
IIA lacks the performance to carry an HTV to orbit.


--
JRF

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