At minimum the mars program is already dead, its final nail in the
coffin will be the day Bush is replaced.

I dont think humans will return to the Moon on nasa vehicles.

NASA MAY get to keep a robotic moon program or buy space on a business
vehicle.

NASA will probably get a over priced CEV vehicle of some sort for LEO
only....

It will be quickly obsoleted by private industry.

The risk with private industry is the recession that I believe is
coming will dry up investment income in long term risky programs