On Fri, 23 Jan 2004 05:05:00 GMT, "Dan Hanson"
wrote:

The media and this group should stop calling the new NASA directive a 'moon
plan'. It seems that the belief is that Bush is cancelling everything NASA
does

Not so, but a lot of funding is soon to be obtained from some project
or other, which will result in cancellations or suspensions.

The ISS is suffering the biggest funding cut, where of course Hubble
was cut for other reasons.

and moving all the money into a manned moon base. This isn't the case
at all.

Naturally.

It would be more accurate to call this an 'exploration plan'.

True, but the "moon plan" is a sub-section of this "exploration plan".

Further more it is the first real goal within this larger plan, when
they are between 2008 and 2020 focusing on this moon objective.

I doubt that even visiting asteroids or comets will happen before a
moon base is well established.

Mars is the obvious second main target along this larger exploration
plan.

What's really
happening is that NASA's focus is changing from LEO cargo flights and ISS
maintenance, and towards more exploration and science.

Human exploration and science, even if robotic missions will still
play a vital and larger part.

It's not even clear
at this point that the main focus will be a moon base - that was just the
hook for the public.

Bush's speech was clear enough, where again it is simple natural
progression of out wards manned space exploration.

NASA has distributed its Vision under the new initiative to its employees.
Here's what it says:

(courtesy http://www.astrobiology.com/news/viewsr.html?pid=11605)

Yes, where it says exactly what I would expect. Moon, Asteroids &
Comets, Mars, where it almost goes as far as human exploration of
Jupiter's satellites, but not quite.

Guiding Principles for Exploration

a.. Pursue Compelling Questions

a.. Exploration of the solar system will be guided by compelling questions
of scientific and societal importance.
b.. Consistent with the NASA Vision and Mission, NASA exploration programs
will seek profound answers to questions of our origins, whether life exists
beyond Earth, and how we could live on other worlds.

And first you need your moon base to test and advance technology in
order to make all that come about.

a.. Across Multiple Worlds

a.. NASA will make progress across a broad front of destinations.

Keeping everyone happy...

b.. Consistent with recent discoveries, NASA will focus on likely
habitable environments at the planet Mars, the moons of Jupiter, and in
other solar systems.

All the best stuff.

c.. Where advantageous, NASA will also make use of destinations likethe
Moon and near-Earth asteroids to test and demonstrate new exploration
capabilities.

There is your moon base, in not so many words.

a.. Employ Human and Robotic Capabilities

a.. NASA will send human and robotic explorers as partners, leveraging the
capabilities of each where most useful.
b.. Robotic explorers will visit new worlds first, to obtain scientific
data, demonstrate breakthrough technologies, identify space resources, and
send tantalizing imagery back to Earth.
c.. Human explorers will follow to conduct in-depth research, direct and
upgrade advanced robotic explorers, prepare space resources, and demonstrate
new exploration capabilities

Moon, Mars and so on.

a.. For Sustainable Exploration

a.. NASA will pursue breakthrough technologies, investigate planetary
resources, and align ongoing programs to develop sustainable, affordable,
and flexible solar system exploration strategies.

There goes many of your projects.

b.. The vision is not about one-time events and, thus, costs will be
reduced to maintain the affordability of the vision

Big plans, with no money to pay for it!

a.. Starting Now

a.. NASA will pursue this vision as our highest priority.
b.. Consistent with the FY 2005 Budget, NASA will immediately begin to
realign programs and organization,

Yes, program cuts and one or two moon ones added.

demonstrate new technical capabilities,

This is what will be happening on the CEV until about 2011, when they
really start to build the thing.

and undertake new robotic precursor missions to the Moon and Mars before the
end of the decade.

As expected.

Key Elements of New Space Policy

a.. Space Shuttle
a.. Return the Space Shuttle to flight and plan to retire it by the end of
this decade, following the completion of its role in the construction of the
International Space Station

Yes that one is clear as well.

a.. International Space Station Complete assembly

a.. Refocus research to exploration factors affecting astronaut health,
and

They do enough of that already, without doing too much seriously to
improve things, but at least this allows a budget cut on the ISS from
the micro gravity experiments.

Kind of a shame that the only one of those experiments I liked was to
study the strengths of smeltered metals in a low gravity environment,
when air bubbles can weaken things.

That got cut due to this, but I guess that they can always find that
out the hard way later when on the Moon. I liked that one because of
course this information could be useful to avoid your structures
breaking.

b.. Acquire crew and cargo systems, as necessary, during and after
availability of Shuttle.

Good to see that cargo got mentioned in there, where as long as crew
and cargo are not merged together into the one craft, then they should
be on the right track.

a.. Crew Exploration Vehicle

a.. Develop a CEV to travel beyond low Earth orbit, the first new U.S.
human space flight vehicle since the 1980s.
b.. Undertake first test flight is planned by the end of this decadein
order to provide an operational capability to support human exploration
missions no later than 2014.

They will be hoping for 2014 completion, when the bulk of the funding
only becomes available from 2011 due to the Shuttle support cuts.

a.. Lunar Exploration

See, the "moon plan". :-]

a.. Begin robotic missions to the Moon by 2008, followed by a period of
evaluating lunar resources and technologies for exploration.

They have 7 years.

I am currently wondering if they will use a Smart-1 type plan to lower
the launch costs or to go direct. Depends on how fast they want their
data back I guess.

b.. Begin human expeditions to the Moon in the 2015 2020 timeframe.

No doubt including a Moon Base if they have the funds for it, but no
need to "spook" those in congress yet with such ideas.

a.. Mars Exploration

a.. Conduct robotic exploration of Mars to search for evidence of life, to
understand the history of the solar system, and to prepare for future human
exploration.

No change their then.

b.. Timing of human missions to Mars will be based on available budgetary
resources,

That could take a long time.

If NASA gets to spend its budget as it pleases though, then they can
stretch such an expensive plan over as many years as it takes.

experience and knowledge gained from lunar exploration,

Yes, where a Moon Base will be extremely helpful in this objective.

discoveries by robotic spacecraft at Mars and other solar system locations,
and development of required technologies and know-how.

a.. Other Solar System Exploration

a.. Conduct robotic exploration across the solar system for scientific
purposes and to support human exploration.

Humans won't be going too far just yet. As once they have Mars, then
they have an entire world to explore. So no major rush to move
elsewhere, even if they could take a peek.

b.. In particular, explore Jupiter's moons, asteroids and other bodies to
search for evidence of life, to understand the history of the solar system,
and to search for resources;

Hey lets all go to IO. ;-]

I like Ganymede most myself being the largest and with a few
surprises, but the first manned mission could well be to Callisto.

Now I am wondering how tricky it would be to move your CEV+2 between
these large satellites of Jupiter if say you established your base on
Callisto.

Moving on to Saturn would be quite interesting, when I am unsure as to
where you would plant your base. Titan is the largest option here, but
that atmosphere could be a problem.

Depends on what Hygens finds on Titan I guess.

Manned exploration to the inner solar system is bound to take some
time, when you can only orbit Venus, unless you desire a one way trip
to the surface.

Mercury is a little too close to the Sun for comfort, what with all
that radiation and heat. Still, your astronauts can spend up to a
maximum of 176 days on the much cooler dark side, before that very
spot is subject to intense heating.

I wonder if anyone here knows the facts concerning a manned Mercury
visit? Like the easier one of escape velocity. The temperature
concerns of manned approach to Mercury. Then of course the interesting
surface conditions.

A Mercury visit would be quite interesting considering the high
density of this planet. Lots of gold. ;-]

a.. Exploration Beyond

a.. Conduct advanced telescope searches for Earth-like planets and
habitable environments around other stars;

Good to see that extra solar planet finding is remaining in NASA's
plan, even if they will never do a manned mission out that far in
their known future.

No doubt the one reason for this is that it will generate huge
interest in space exploration should they find one or more life
bearing planets.

The public will demand answers, to the benefit of NASA's budget.

a.. Enabling Capabilities

a.. Develop and demonstrate power generation,

Their nuclear power generators.

propulsion,

Large ion drives mostly, but they are working on rocket technology as
well.

life support,

I wonder if they will get really serious about this? After all we know
that the ISS does not really do much recycling.

Air generation by plants also goes to provide food, where they also
help to deal with waste products. Apart from that they have to turn
pee in wine, whoops water.

and other key capabilities required to support more distant, more capable,
and/or longer duration human and robotic exploration of Mars and other
destinations.

Fuel, food and oxygen production on the Moon would be great in
achieving this objective, but maybe an asteroid or two could help out.

It should be clear from this that this isn't really a "Moon Mission",

No, but the Moon is the first goal of this plan.

or a "Moon/Mars Mission".

After the Moon comes...

It's pure exploration - Taking the most logical steps

Yes, logical steps. Test your remote human colony living off the Moon
before you have to try it elsewhere.

As if things go wrong, then it is not so far to go in order to reach
safety. Also the resources on the Moon will certainly provide many
benefits. Some ways we know, some won't work out, where most we are
currently clueless about.

we can to expand our knowledge and occupation of space. No more flying
space trucks to LEO and back - it's time to look a little farther.

And maybe even much further if they start finding other planets that
we could, in theory, live on.

The reason the Moon is a *likely destination is simply that it's the most
logical waypoint.

Correct, which is why nearly everyone here is talking about it. So
that is the "moon plan", which clearly is the start of a much later
plan.

Unfortunately, it is also true to say that if NASA messes up the CEV
and "moon plan", then they won't be going elsewhere.

If your goal isn't a single target (landing a man on
Mars), but a systematic move into space in general, then the Moon is a
pretty logical place to go. It's the easiest, it's the only one that has
potential for serious economic exploitation. It makes a fine proving ground
for lots of things.

So if you know this, then why are you questioning people talking about
it? People here know that the "moon plan" comes first, which is why
there is not much discussion on the "pluto plan".

Mars gets a fair degree of mention here though, when that is the real
goal. As the Moon is like a dried up prune compared to the mouth
watering peach of Mars.

And so the Moon sure is a nice first destination, but few people here
would choose the Moon over Mars if they had to choose one or the
other.

But the Moon isn't the final destination, and neither is Mars. The goal is
simply ongoing exploration and expansion.

Just think that all this could canceled not far into the future by
either congress or the next President.

Note how much emphasis is placed on space telescopes

Of limited design. Notice how those ones to peer deep into the
Universe did not get mentioned?

Goodbye James Webb, and thanks for all the fish.

Well the edge of the visible Universe will still be there in the more
distant future should that project indeed get cut.

I am going to have to go down NASA's project list and pick out the
ones not compatible with NASA's new objective.

More than a few will have to be cut, no doubt about that.

and robotic missions

Now better aimed in supporting future manned missions, which changes
their old Mars plan none.

You are likely to lose the projects to asteroids and comets in the
near future, when these will more be needed in the plus 2020 time
frame.

about as much as going to the Moon.

Yes, we know all that, but what comes first?

It's a forward looking, long range plan to get NASA out of its rut, and find
a meaning for the post-shuttle era. We're very lucky that this President
decided that the answer would be to step forward and set new goals and
challenges

Hopefully it is more than a puff of smoke, when we have heard ideas
like this before. Still, I would say that this is the best plan so far
in making it work out.

the other result could very easily have been a 6 billion dollar
a year budget cut for NASA.

Very unlikely considering that the Columbia accident report cited
continuous under funding and cuts to NASA's budget was partly to
blame.

So a small increase has always been expected.

I think the full 'vision' outlined above can put to rest the idea that
Hubble was cancelled because NASA is going to sacrifice science for manned
flight.

No one has claimed that as far as I recall. Sure there are going to be
huge cuts in the science area due to having to support manned
missions, but in the longer term the science return will greatly
increase due to humans being directly involved.

Telescopes like Hubble are a big part of the new vision.

Not quite, when only extra solar planet finding telescopes were
mentioned, which includes the future Kepler (2007), Space
Interferometry Mission (2009), then the most important one of all
Terrestrial Planet Finder (2014).

That list did not include types like the James Webb, through either
design or accident.

The
Hubble was cancelled simply because after you add up the risks

The risk in minimal, but of course each Shuttle flight increases the
risk of another accident.

and the cost, in the end the value just wasn't there,

Well it was, but astronauts repairing and upgrading telescopes is not
the best idea in the first place.

even in the context of the shift
towards more exploration. Hubble is more a victim of bad timing and a
moribund shuttle program. All the more reason to get on with the next step
instead of trying to maintain the status quo.

Other project managers will be crying over their losses soon enough,
but I would not expect any announcements for a while. After all this
plan has to get good acceptance before the bad news comes out.

No doubt they will announce the new projects and the cut of many old
ones at the same time.

The ball is now in NASA's court. Funding is going to depend on results.

If those results support NASA's new manned goal, where projects to the
Moon and Mars are the ones you will see most of.

They've been guaranteed seed capital

$1 billion spread over the next 5 years, where $11 billion over that
same time span has to be found from other projects.

The ISS and the micro gravity experiments excuse is the biggest loser,
which is just as well.

and the ability to move shuttle resources into exploration.

Following the cut of the Shuttle systems between 2010 and 2013, which
will pay for the CEV followed by general exploration.

If NASA can deliver results, I believe additional funding would be
there.

That is a hard thing to NASA to achieve when it comes to human
spaceflight, when even the robot missions are a bit touch and go.

Still, maybe NASA can morph into a new reformed NASA. Super NASA, the
people who can do successful missions in budget and on time.

I believe NASA's funding has been
stagnant simply because NASA hasn't made a compelling case for more.

That and the general public does not care about space exploration. As
even the people here who are interested in space are, as a group,
undecided.

Now they have a chance to make compelling cases.

Congress will most appreciate results, when NASA's human based
projects have not gone at all well so far.

So NASA won't even be able to discuss a moon base before they have
proved that the CEV is working well with cost figures that puts the
Shuttle to shame.

Cardman.
http://www.cardman.com
http://www.cardman.co.uk