"Tom Cuddihy" wrote in message
ups.com...

But you have to start somewhere. ESAS is what you
call a 'baseline.' It's the fallback. If all the other
budding space projects fall through completely, if
SpaceX stalls after launching one or two Falcon 1s, if
all of AirLaunch's test engines blow up and Blue
Origin kills a family of 5 on their first suborbital joy
ride, at least the ESAS will still be in progress,
keeping the public interested in man's outward
destiny, keeping at least a cadre of personnel
knowledgeable in the issues of manned space launch,
hopefully beyond LEO.

Which do you think has the greater chance of success - one $100 billion
ESAS approach, or one thousand $100 million SpaceX/Airlaunch/Origin
efforts?

Which "baseline" would you prefer?

Pete.