I guess the odds have changed slightly now.

My new odds would be

Nationality of first person on Mars :-

USA 25%
Chinese 23%
Russian 22%
European probably German 18%
Indian 8%
Other 9%

And the year :-

Before 2010 1%
2010 to 2015 5%
2015 to 2020 20%
2020 to 2025 25%
2025 or later 40%
Never 9%

I do not think Bush will make much difference with his speech but it might
make a trigger for another leader to follow.