The bottom line of Bush's space speech is that it is a load of wishful
thinking. They're going to build a moon base, but not while Bush is
president. They're going to retire the space shuttle and "complete"
the space station, but not while Bush is president. There will be a new
"crew exploration vehicle", but it will not fly astronauts while
Bush is president. Who knows how much it will all eventually cost,
but it will only be $1 billion in new money in the next five years.
Somehow $11 billion will be taken out of existing programs, although
it's not clear which ones. Maybe existing programs will just be renamed.

Basically the space plan is designed to promise as much as possible
while actually changing as little as possible. It will not improve
either the budget deficit or space exploration while Bush is president.
His successors will probably scrap or postpone most of the plan. If you
really expect a moon base to come out of this, forget it: Bush made no
sincere commitment. In any case, there is very little for astronauts to
do on the moon relative to the cost of sending them. Sincere commitment
would soon fall prey to bemusement, even boredom.

Personally I think that the best possible use of Bush's space policy
would be as an exit strategy for the pathetic space shuttle and even more
pathetic space station. But I don't know if it really come to that.
It's nice that robotic space science will continue under the guise
of "exploration missions". Hopefully the "crew exploration vehicle"
will not be yet another fiscal cancer like the shuttle and the station.
Still, space science, even though it is very respectable, is no sacred
cow for me, or for most scientists.
--
/\ Greg Kuperberg (UC Davis)
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