In article ,
(ed kyle) wrote:

First let me say that I think that space shuttle should
be retired and replaced as soon as possible. But I'm
having a big problem with this idea proported to be
proposed on Wednesday by Pres. Bush to abandon shuttle
outright, with a several-year gap before another U.S.
crewed capability (Crew Exploration Vehicle) is developed.

If this is the actual proposal, it is a very bad idea.
The danger is that shuttle is abandoned, but CEV
development is subsequently stalled (for any of a variety
of possible reasons), bringing an end to U.S. human
spaceflight for the forseeable future.

That seems to assume that only the government can build a man-rated
launcher. It also assumes that the government is the only customer for
a man-rated launcher. Both of these assumptions are a bit suspect, I
think.

Taking the first one: if we really want to put some U.S. employees in
space, and assuming no shuttle and no replacement NASA launcher, then
there are several options. One (which is rumored to be part of the
plan) is to purchase launches from other spacefaring nations. But
another is to purchase launches from any other company that can provide
them. Yes, I realize that there are no such companies currently, but if
the price were right, there could be in fairly short order. SeaLaunch,
for example, could probably be man-rated. SpaceX (which I expect will
be flying the Falcon I very soon) could man-rate its I or V booster,
again, if there were sufficient demand. Indeed, we might all be better
off if NASA simply supplied the market, and stayed out of the
engineering and operations details.

Taking the second assumption: space tourism is about to take off in a
big way. By the time ISS is completed and the shuttle fleet retired, we
will at least have a suborbital tourism industry. To the extent that
this industry will largely consist of U.S. companies flying U.S.
passengers, this constitutes "U.S. human spaceflight," don't you agree?

Besides, even if the U.S. is out of the human spaceflight business for a
few years, I'm not convinced that would necessarily be a bad thing.
Things have stagnated for so long, I'm starting to think that anything
that shakes up the space industry can't hurt, and just might help.

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