Andre Lieven wrote:

ATV exists. It's not complete yet, and a year from flying roughly,
but it exists.

Until it flies, and flies successfully, I don't count it. Period.
PR flyers are a dime a dozen. Flown systems are the real thing.


ATV is more realistic than HTV, Klipper or CEV. They've already fitted
the station with the gear to let its guidance system dock. The first
flight ATV has been built. ATV has a lot of conventional technologies:
MPLM shell for cargo module. Russian made docking module. Ariane 5 for
launcher. But there is also a lot of new stuff (guidance, propulsion
for orbiting tug etc).

It is already late. And likely to see more delays while they debug the
vehicle. And hopefully the modified Arianne 5 won't blow up when it
launches ATV.

So yes, you can't bet your life on ATV yet. But it is far from being
vapourware.

HTV on the other hand is a big question mark. ESA has experience with
Arianne 5. How much experience does Japan have with launchers ?