"Jim Oberg" wrote in message
...
see
http://www.usatoday.com/tech/science...e-debris_x.htm



Posted 6/7/2005 9:18 PM
Shuttle study finds higher risk of fatal hit by debris
By Traci Watson, USA TODAY
A new NASA risk analysis is raising fears that the space shuttle
could
stand a higher chance of being destroyed by space debris than previously
thought.

But the preliminary analysis dated April 26 placed the odds
that orbital debris could destroy the next shuttle at a range
from 1 in 54 to 1 in 113. That risk estimate stems from recent
tests showing that the space shuttle's heat shield is more
fragile than NASA had realized.

It's always hard to come up with estimates like this, but if these numbers
are in the ballpark, then this risk is a bit high.

How would you reduce such a risk for a next generation spacecraft?
Certainly better micrometeorite protection would help against smaller
objects, but how do you protect a heat shield on something as big as the
envisioned CEV?

Jeff
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