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Old April 26th 05, 10:21 PM
Ed Kyle
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Ed Kyle wrote:
The upcoming 4/25/05 Zenit 3SL launch by Sea Launch
will boost the 6 metric ton Spaceway 1 satellite
directly to geosynchronous transfer orbit using a
single Block DMSL upper stage burn. I think this
is the first time Sea Launch has done this profile.

At any rate, Spaceway 1 will, if successful,
slightly better the previous commercial comsat mass
record established last month by Inmarsat 4-F1,
which was launched atop Atlas V AV-004 from Cape
Canaveral.


The launch was a success, but the press release is
a failu

"http://www.boeing.com/news/releases/2005/q2/nr_050426s.html"

"Sea Launch Company, LLC, headquartered in Long Beach,
Calif., and marketed through Boeing Launch Services
(www.boeing.com/launch), is the world's most reliable
heavy-lift commercial launch service."

I have to disagree. There are at least two heavy-lift
commercial launchers with better records than Zenit 3SL
at present, as follows.

[1] [2] [3] [4]
------------------------------------
Proton-M/Briz-M 7(0) 1.00 .89
Atlas V 5(0) 1.00 .86
Zenit 3SL/DMSL 16(2) .88 .83
Ariane 5G(+,S) 19(3) .84 .81
Delta IV-M 3(0) 1.00 .80 [5]
H-IIA 7(1) .86 .78
Ariane 5-ECA 2(1) .50 .50
Delta IV-H 1(1) .00 .33 [5]
------------------------------------

[1] Launcher
[2] No. Launches(No. Failures)
[3] Realized Rate
[4] First level Bayesian estimate of mean predicted
[5] Not currently offered for commercial launch
probability of success for for next launch attempt
(k+1)/(n+2) where k is the number of successful
events and n is the number of trials.

- Ed Kyle