"Steen Eiler Jørgensen" wrote in message
...
Dr. O wrote:

My guess is that it will be completed in the 2020-2025 timeframe.

My guess is that it won't be done within the next 100 years. Today,
we're very far from possessing the necessary technology.

Did you read the article at all? The bottom line is: we're not very far away
from attaining the necessary technology. And they're giving a feasible
timeline.


This will completely change our perceptions of access to space.

Of course, once it's built.

Thousands, if not millions will travel into space.

Why? Where should they be going? To GEO? Wow. Remember (even if you
build the darned thing), travelling at 65 mph, it's going to take two
weeks to get there!

There will probably be multiple stops along the way. To say, 400km, will
only take a couple of hours, probably less as the thing will undoubtedly
travel faster than 65mph. For most human activity, GEO isn't very
interesting at all. Most of it will be in LEO. But space mining may even
become feasible with such low-cost access to space.


Rockets will be quickly viewed as unsafe and cost-ineffective.

Of course, once it's built.

How about a simple space vehicle which will make pleasure trip orbits
around the Earth? This should be doable if it were docked at the
Elevator and within financial reach for many millions of people, is
my guess. I'm also foreseeing many nations putting up their own Space
Elevators, such as the EU, China and Japan. Even flyby trips to the
moon would be imaginable, although these would be a lot more
expensive since such a journey would take about a week. You would
need quite a large ship to hold all these paying passengers. A space
hotel will almost certainly constructed if a Space Elevator were to
become a reality.

Hmmm...

I think you're forgetting, that the cost of building this thing would be
astronomical. Who should pay? Who would invest? Given the current
political climate? The U.S.? Never. The risk of failure would be too
high. Besides, anti-elevator lobbying from Boing and Lockheed Martin
would be massive. Once the elevator is there, noone will buy expendable
rockets. Which means thousands and thousands of taxpayers (and voters)
currently employed within the space industry losing their jobs.


The cost won't be that great. The estimates given are $6billion. Even if
it's $100billion, it's still a bargain if you consider it will open up a
whole new range of economic activities. Besides, the initial Space Elevator
will probably be an international project, just like ISS. Future Elevators
may be national in nature.