wrote:

Jonathan Silverlight writes:

Can you imagine the feelings of astronomers if Charon hadn't been
discovered until 1990, and they realised they had missed a series of
eclipses which won't recur for over a century? :-)

Yes I can, because when the satellite was discovered in 1978, the
orbit was known to be nearly edge on, but it was not known whether
it was opening or closing, thus there was a 50 percent chance that
the eclipses had been missed.

Hmm ... that is in contradiction with what Stern says in his book;

"... However, the fact that no observer had accidently stumbled onto one
in progress hinted it was more likely that the event were in future, than
in the recent past. " ( page #66 )

This suggests 50% ++, correct Mr. Tholen ?

To tell you the truth I do not quite understand what Stern is talking
about.
For sure you know, since your picture is in the same book a few pages down
the road. Please explain this to us.