"ed kyle" wrote in message
om...
OSP you add 10-25 launches a year.
15 rockets a year for each launcher would be a good jump start.

It would be, but I don't think we'll see it. Since 2000,
inclusive, the combined total of all Atlas, Delta, Titan, and
Shuttle launches have averaged 19.7 launches per year. Delta II
will still be a going concern for awhile, apparently, and it
accounted for 5.7 launches per year during the period. If we
assume that STS flights stop and are replaced by EELV/OSP
missions on a one-for-one basis, we are left with 14 launches
per year. Even if you replace STS on a two-for-one basis
(assuming one crew and one payload flight), the total comes to
only 19.3 launches per year. The best case scenario, then, sees
each EELV flying less than 10 times per year. Each rocket will
have a pad on each coast, so the busiest pad will probably see
no more than 7-8 launches per year. Existing Cape Canaveral
EELV pad capacity is probably about 12 per year.

Delta II seems booked solid for the next several years.
It has no direct competitor in its weight class the closest are 1/2 or twice
its size. The only rocket that is even close is the Delta 4 Lite if it ever
flies.
It has been flying for years so all most of its costs have already been
amortized.
Of all the American rockets right now it seems the safest.

A lot will depend on what method is chosen for shuttle replacement. One for
one is not possible the shuttle carries seven people and 12.5 tons of cargo
to ISS and 25 tons to LEO.

The largest OSP I have seen is 5 people and less the 2 tons of cargo.
On the small size is 3 people and less then 1 ton of cargo.
You also need an ATV to send cargo, experiments and supplies.
In total for 4 shuttle flights, less then the average number you need
almost 6 of the large and 9+ of the small just for people.
There would be some experiments that would need OSP launches as well about 1
large or 3 small.
With an ATV you need to replace about 40 tons based on the lower figures.
Basing this on the Eurpoean design you need a rocket capable of twice the
cargo you want to deliver. You could get by with as few as 4 heavy launches
or as many as 10 smaller ones. If as some have suggested you want to
encourage the growth of the Delta 4 Lite to replace the Delta 2 then you
could add as many as 10 additional flights.

In reality you are talking about just under 3 to as many as 7 flights to
replace a shuttle launch with 4 being the most likely.

There are also 10 medium to heavy American rockets planned over the next
year.

So you have a minimum of 21 launches and a max of 32 while still flying
one to two shuttle mission and absolutly no growth in the market. I could
see 40 by 2010-2020.