"me" wrote:

:"Fred J. McCall" wrote in message
.. .
: "Paul F. Dietz" wrote:
:
: :Fred J. McCall wrote:
: :
: : :I repeat: your position would require that the technologies for
: : :Mars vehicles be completely disjoint from those used in the rest
: : f the technosphere.
: :
: : You can repeat it all you like, but you haven't shown it to be true.
: : That takes real data and real examples.
: :
: :And the evidence that you have presented for your original
: osition is...?
:
: Price trends over the past 30+ years. Look at NASA's estimated price
: for duplicating what we did in the 1960's. Even then I suspect some
: of the numbers are being jiggered a bit to lower current costs
: compared to what was necessary back then in the way of investment in
: infrastructure.
:
: :'Spin-on' technologies occur *all the time*. That's why we
: :have rockets in the first place -- all sorts of mundane technologies
: :that were developed for other reasons, but enabled the production
: f spacecraft. Why should this suddenly stop? You are proposing
: :a sea change in how technology progresses, with no supporting
: :evidence whatsoever.
:
: Paul, it's quite simple. Look at the cost of the original trip to the
: moon. Now look at the cost of getting back. Even if you buy that
: NASA's numbers aren't just a bit rigged, the price reduction over all
: those decades is just pretty damned small.
:
: Look at the cost of currently getting a pound of stuff to orbit back
: in the 1960s. Look at the cost of doing the same now. Again, the
: price reduction over all those decades is just pretty damned small.
:
:I think you're confusing (or at least mixing) technological costs with labor
:costs. The later has grown substantially over the past 40 years in spite of
:the reductions in the former.

Costs are costs. The cost is what it takes to get the job done,
regardless of the mix of capital and labour used.

Bottom line is that these costs (getting to the Moon, putting a pound
in LEO) have not dropped appreciably in decades. Claims that such a
price drop will magically happen seem to simply fly in the face of
reality.

--
"It's always different. It's always complex. But at some point,
somebody has to draw the line. And that somebody is always me....
I am the law."
-- Buffy, The Vampire Slayer