"Rand Simberg" wrote in message
...
I've have a long essay in this quarter's issue of The New Atlantis, in
which I discuss the myths of the old space age.

http://www.thenewatlantis.com/archive/6/simberg.htm


Nice, though one point I do question is your emphasis on reusability.
Is this not picking winners? Can the market not decide this for itself?
I suppose the suborbital tourist market tends to imply reusability,
though there are other initial markets where reusability may not be so
optimal.

Personally I favour an even greater emphasis on flight rate and open
organic type grass roots competition. Within the current limited market
size, (which will not suddenly grow by many orders of magnitude
overnight), it would be nice to be able to facilitate a smaller vehicle
size. One which might sustain considerably higher launch rates even
while starting from the current existing small market, though growing
sustainably with it over time.

Even now I see the Falcon development path leading on to the Falcon
five. Where does launcher growth end? Space X is being sucked into the
old ways. Given the opportunity, everyone seems to opt for bigger
vehicles instead of higher flight rates. The existing launcher paradigm
has created the existing market paradigm which is corrupting new launch
initiatives back into the old launcher paradigm, it is a vicious circle.
To break out of this I am wondering if on orbit assembly is actually the
critical first step to high flight rates, and thereby CATS. Launcher
growth prevents high flight rates. I suspect CATS might only grow from
a market that discourages launcher growth.

Pete.