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Old December 26th 03, 04:01 PM
James Nicoll
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Default Planet-Formation Model Indicates Earthlike Planets Might Be Common

In article .net,
Joseph Oberlander wrote:

But, there's a catch. Consider how long we have been around as humans.
We know that there was a cataclysm about 35-40K years ago that wiped out
almost all humans. We can all trace our genes back to less than a dozen
individuals at that time. Then there was the Ice age. Then, before that,
there were three mass extinctions.

Given all of that, we figured there's about a 1/10 chance of there being
somewhat evolved life that hasn't completely died off due to whatever factors.
Most planets will be like Mare - once capable of supporting life, but now
an irradiated barren rock.


Five big extinctions (possibly six depending on how the Pleistocene
works out): Cretaceous-Tertiary, End Triassic, Permian-Triassic (the big
kahuna, against which other MEs are mere hicoughs), Late Devonian and
Ordovician-Silurian. Note how in all case, including the Permian one (which
killed something like 95% of all species), were followed by a recovery
of diversity, although not of disparity.

What I take from that is that terminating all life is actually
difficult and that given survivors, variation, selection and time empty
niches will be refilled and indeed new ones discovered.
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