"Bill Ferris" wrote in message
...
John Bortle wrote:
I would suggest that observers not get all that excited about this object
just
yet. Remember all the hype regarding the two most recent "bright" comets
LINEAR
and NEAT, which fell far short of most predictions of brightness and
grandeur...including those issued by the MPC (which are meant only as a
_very_
general guide anyway)?

C/2001 Q4 (NEAT) may have peaked 2-3 magnitude fainter than the most
optomistic
early predictions, but that didn't stop it from putting on a fine display;
the
best I've seen since Hale-Bopp:
http://members.aol.com/billferris/neat051404.html


I personally wouldn't compare it to Hale-Bopp, which while remaining small
for suburban astronomers did get bright enough that if you knew where to
look you could spot it with the unaided eye easily. NEAT didn't do this.

Also, I hope NEAT and LINEAR will finally drive home the message that comet
predictions are like political polls; they're basically meaningless until
you get within three days of the election, or three weeks to peak
brightness. I suspect comet magnitude predictions and meteor shower rate
predictions appeal to a large part of the populous that is also interested
in other uncertain outcomes, like who will win the horse race, the World
Series, the Super Bowl, et al, even before the race starts. And if history
has shown us anything, it's that all predictions are meaningless until the
race is pretty far along its course.

So let's just all calm down, sit back, enjoy the coming months, and wait
until this comet, and any future comets, get within three weeks of
perihelion, and then make meaningful and fairly accurate predictions unlike
the ones we're hearing now.

Just my two cents.

--
Yours Truly,
--- Dave

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'raid if you're afraid you'll have to overlook it.
Besides, you knew the job was dangerous when you took it.
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