"Bruce Sterling Woodcock" wrote in message
m...

"Chris Bennetts" wrote in message
...
With the changes to the ET foam, there is a much smaller risk of there
being
any damage to the TPS during launch. That particular "1 in 50 bomb" has
been
largely eliminated. (BTW, where'd you get 1 in 50 from? There was 1
total
loss and several cases of more minor damage from 112 reentry attempts.)

You have no empirical data that shows the risk of TPS damage
is smaller during launch now. None. Zero, zip, nada, zilch.

Correct - I don't. However, the changes to the ET foam - particularly around
the bipod area, the probable source of the foam that caused the loss of
Columbia - appear to reduce the chances of foam falling during launch and
damaging the orbiter's TPS. So I do consider the particular "bomb" that
caused the loss of Columbia to be a substantially smaller threat from now
on. We'll still need to keep a close eye on it, of course.

Secondly, 1 in 50 is LIKE. Get it? It's not the exact figure. It
doesn't matter what the exact figure is for the purpose of the
analogy. Get it?

Yes, point taken.

--Chris