On Sun, 22 Apr 2018 17:55:39 -0700 (PDT), Gary Harnagel
wrote:
On Sunday, April 22, 2018 at 1:16:31 PM UTC-6, Paul Schlyter wrote:

On Sat, 21 Apr 2018 09:56:15 -0700 (PDT), Gary Harnagel
wrote:

Yeah. Like the kind of feedback clouds provide. Not the fact
that
the Earth is warming dramatically and the cause is the human
release
of fossil carbon into the atmosphere.

Unsubstantiated assertion. Correlation doesn't necessarily
imply
causation.

However, in the case of AGW, a very plausible mechanism of
causation
is known. Do you have another, more plausible, reason for the
correlation? If so, present it. If your argument is solid, you'll
definitely get a Nobel Prize for that.

I don't think there is any question that global temperatures have
risen:


https://www.accuweather.com/en/weath...e/how-did-janu
ary-2018-rank-in-terms-of-global-temperatures/70004226

But I have a bit of concern for honesty here. They say, "The last
four
years rank among the five warmest Januarys on record."

That's true ... as far as it goes, but the chart shows the last two
years
in a downward trend, taking off a third of the temperature
increases over
the last 138 years!

Weather is VERY complex, and modeling is VERY difficult,
particularly when
certain factors are handled only indirectly (and, therefore, only
approxi-
mately) and other factors haven't been included.

We're not talking about weather here. Indeed we cannot predict the
weather even a month in advance. But in climatology thes no need
to predict the weather on individual days. In climatology we're
interested in long term averages, and that simplifies matters a lot.
Those individual eddies which are so hard to predict in weather
forecasting vanish in those long term averages which climatology
deals with.

Those long term averages also makes temperatures during one or a few
individual years quite insignificant. But if the trend continues over
decades, then it becomes climatologically significant. So instead of
focusing on the last two years, you should instead focus on the last
20-50 years. Don't throw away half a century of data just because of
temporary short term deviations recently.

Finally, you failed to propose another mechanism for GW more
plausible than radiation al warming due to IR absorption by
increasing amounts of CO2.