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Old March 17th 18, 02:04 PM posted to sci.space.policy
Jeff Findley[_6_]
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Posts: 2,307
Default BFR early next year.

In article ,
says...

JF Mezei wrote on Fri, 16 Mar 2018
17:05:50 -0400:

On 2018-03-16 03:16, Niklas Holsti wrote:

I hope that SLS is also a transitional temporary project, and that BFR
will replace it. In this ephemeral role, too, Falcon Heavy competes with
SLS.


Since SLS has no commercial goals, has limited set of test flights with
no planned use beyond one crewed flight around the moon, it is not in
any competition except for sucking up government funding away from from
more productive uses.


I'm sure we've covered this before. While of course stuff out more
than half a dozen years tends to get tentative, there are certainly
'planned uses' for SLS beyond one flight around the Moon. That flight
is EM-2 (EM-1 is the same mission but unmanned) currently scheduled
for 2022. I see 9 more missions planned after that, mostly involved
with putting together the Lunar Orbital Platform - Gateway. Is any of
this sounding at all familiar to you or have you once again lost all
memory of anything that was told to you before lunch?


I don't believe that date for EM-2. NASA recently decided to not build
a new MLP for EM-2 and instead modify the one to be used for EM-1. This
means they simply can't shorten the 33 month gap between EM-1 and EM-2.
They really can't start the MLP modifications until after EM-1 flies.
So EM-2 will keep slipping to the right by the amount that EM-1 slips to
the right.

NASA no longer seeking to develop second mobile launcher for SLS
by Jeff Foust ? February 28, 2018
http://spacenews.com/nasa-no-longer-...second-mobile-
launcher-for-sls/

If EM-1 slips into 2020, as some sites are reporting, I don't see how
EM-2 could realistically fly by 2022 with a minimum of 33 months between
them.

NASA expects first Space Launch System flight to slip into 2020
November 20, 2017 Stephen Clark
https://spaceflightnow.com/2017/11/2...-space-launch-
system-flight-to-slip-into-2020/

SLS slips are constant and always moving to the right. I have zero
faith in the 2022 date for EM-2.

Between now and EM-2 we're looking at about $15 to $18 billion to be
spent on SLS/Orion (depending on when it actually flies). That does not
include any money spent before today, only money we're going to spend.
It's absurd how much we're spending on a vehicle that will almost
certainly be obsolete before it starts flying "routinely" at a cadence
of at most 2 flights per year at a cost to the US taxpayer of well over
$1 billion a flight.

Jeff
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