On 3/16/2018 10:30 AM, Jeff Findley wrote:
In article , says...

On 3/14/2018 6:24 AM, Jeff Findley wrote:
In article ,
lid says...

(Gosh, perhaps the "Earth to Earth transport function" is to be taken
seriously...)

This is all very fluid right now, isn't it?

Jeff


Yes, but I would also take P2P transport very seriously. I suspect Elon is.

That's the one part of BFR/BFS I don't take seriously. As a first
generation VTVL TSTO it's not likely to be safe enough for routine
passenger transport. Maybe the second or third generation will be.


We disagree on this point. Because 1st gen will have to do for a lot of
the "heavy lifting" when it comes to crew. There is a lot of engineering
going into BFS, but "generations" if needed will come quickly, ala Block
1..n. Some of Elon's plan as revealed last year hints that this is
viewed as a means of revenue generation to at least earn back some of
the NRE since government isn't financing this "directly". Plus with no
other enhancements planned for F9 or F9H or beyond the current
non-propulsive landing Dragon V2, this is the all eggs in one basket for
SpaceX's future. I suspect P2P will start maybe with one or more drone
ship landings at sea, followed quickly with a short hop land-based P2P,
likely my guess from Boca Chica to Cape Canaveral LZs, pending FAA
approval. The path from this to passenger service seems far more direct
to me than building a Mars (or Moon) colony. At least in the short term.
But admittedly, that's just me.

Another question is whether the current drone ship is capable of BFS
landings? I understand there is some new activity at Marchand. So I
suspect the answer is no. But I could be wrong. There is some rumbling
about using anchored platforms in the Gulf of Mexico. Stay tuned.

As a final note, in reviewing the comments made by Elon at least year's
conference, he made an almost aside comment that BFS was sort of like a
mashup of a 2nd stage and Dragon. I suspect that possibly one of the
reasons Elon may not be far off on his estimates for 1st flights of BFS
is because there is a good deal of truth behind that statement. Which
might also mean that at least Block 1 BFS has less capability than the
Mars version Elon talks about. If the OD (outer diameter) of the
fuselage stays constant that might mean the interior of Block 1 BFS is
much much less capable. Perhaps almost 1-for-1 on par with current
Dragon V2. But enhancement would not require modifications to the
exterior or stage couplings. Only the dry mass increases, which ought to
be able to be handled by propellant loading. There's a whole lot (more)
to come here....

Dave