Posted by E.D.G. May 6, 2004

This subject matter will probably eventually be fairly important to the work
that I am doing which is to develop a "synthetic triangulation" computer
program for determining what the locations are where earthquake and perhaps
tornado precursor signals are being generated. The program is already up
and running and downloadable from the following Web site. A newer version
and additional documentation is scheduled to be stored there later tonight.

http://www.freewebz.com/eq-forecasting/301.html

It is my personal belief that this program probably presently represents
about the only hope that many people around the world who are threatened by
earthquakes and perhaps tornados have of receiving a waning before a
destructive one occurs near them. It relies on certain types of precursor
signals and a knowledge of where the sun and moon are in the sky and where
ocean and Solid Earth Tide crests and troughs are located at the time when
the signals are detected and when earthquakes occur. A professional
computer programmer and I are trying to finalize a program which generates
subsolar and sublunar latitudes and longitudes. It will replace an enormous
data file I have stored at the site which contains those types of data in a
compiled form. I needed to know if that noon time offset I have been
observing is real. Apparently it is. And it will have to eventually be
better understood by people who attempt to develop more advanced versions of
my own forecasting program and also people working on the following
earthquake forecasting program which involves detecting slight variations in
the position of the shadow of an object cast on a wall. It is an
interesting concept which is unfortunately I feel not presently adequately
explained at this Web site.

http://earthquake.itgo.com/today.htm

I know the details of how it works. And there is more logic to it than the
documentation at the Web site appears to me to suggest.

ADDITIONAL SUN AND MOON TRANSIT TIME FACTORS

There are at least two additional factors which I believe can influence sun
and moon transit times for different locations on Earth. I didn't see
either mentioned in any of the responses to my original post though I might
have simply missed something someone said.

There is a wobble in the rotation of the Earth on its North - South Pole
axis which is I believe called polar motion. If I understand it correctly
it is composed of something called Chandler's wobble and also a seasonal
type of wobble. I don't think that it is responsible for much of the
transit time offset I have seen.

The other factor would be linked with the gravitational effects of the moon
on the Earth. Once each month the Earth and moon rotate in a somewhat
irregular manner around a common center of mass. And the moon gravity also
affects the Earth differently throughout the month as it travels from north
to south, from close to far in its orbit, and as it gets close to the sun in
the sky or is on the opposite side of the Earth from the sun.

As I said, I expect that these types of effects will eventually be regarded
as being important for these forecasting methods. For the moment I just
need to be able to compensate for them. And I believe that my computer
programs can presently do that.

There is a very interesting puzzle which my forecasting program indicates
exists. Something related to the gravitational pulls of the sun and the
moon appears to be quite important to earthquake triggering processes. And
no one knows what it is or even much about it. My program should provide
clear evidence that it exists. But the question still remains regarding its
nature. Two present theories are discussed towards the end of the following
report:

http://www.freewebz.com/eq-forecasting/128.html

One of those theories proposes that sun and moon gravity related forces are
acting directly on the Earth's crust and pulling it in different directions
resulting in temporary, cyclic types of strain being added to certain fault
zones. The other theory proposes that as the Earth, moon, and sun rotate
around their common centers of mass the Earth's dense, solid core tries to
stay in one place and rotate with a fixed speed while its crust is being
pulled in different directions by the sun and moon gravity and also
forced to change it rotation speed to some extent because of changes in the
amount of ocean tide and current drag on the crust etc. In the process of
resisting those location and rotation speed changes the Earth's core causes
stress to be produced in certain locations in the crust. And that can then
result in earthquakes being triggered in fault zones in those locations if
the fault zones are about ready to fracture on their own anyway.

I personally cannot understand why geophysicists seem to completely unaware
of these earthquake triggering effects or why they have not developed clear
pictures for how those types of crustal strain related processes might be
affecting earthquake fault zones. The subject matter is certainly
important!

These are personal opinions.