On 9/07/2011 4:58 AM, Richard Stephens wrote:
Original estimates of costs per launch were only $7 million. They ended
up costing over $1 billion.

What went wrong?

Was it a deliberate lie, or bad management?


Depends on what you call "launch costs" - I prefer the cost of the
program divided by the number of launches. That works out at about $1.3
billion per launch.

Last night, the NASA spokesperson said it was about $430 million per launch.

Compare that to Delta IV Heavy for $250 p/l and Falcon Heavy for $125
million per launch - less than a third of the shuttle cost for a payload
mission - with a payload almost three times the size.

Falcon Heavy allows automated modules (like a big version of the
Salyut/Mir/Russion ISS modules) to be launched at rendezvous/dock
without human involvement. If you want to launch people, the Falcon
Heavy could put a reuesable vehicle into orbit for that purpose (I'm
thinking of the proposed HL-42 - a much larger version of the HL-20 that
was proposed by the USAF) that could launch 20ish people into LEO for
less than half the shuttle launch cost.

Saturn Ib shows as being less expensive for personnel launch and using
that LV for payload would still be less expensive today especially if
you amortise the cost.