On 6/04/2011 8:43 AM, Brian Thorn wrote:
On Tue, 5 Apr 2011 15:36:20 -0400, Jeff Findley
wrote:

It's going to be a big launcher, capable of launching a 53,000 kg
payload into an orbit of 28.5 degrees inclination at 200 km altitude.

Yes, but what payloads need that capacity anytime in the next decade?
Three giant GEO satellites at the same time? Good luck scheduling
that.

Compare the 'Big Three' U.S. launchers (Delta IV Heavy, Atlas V and
Falcon Heavy) - Atlas 401 (basic version) - $187 million (much more
expensive for the proposed heavy version); Delta IV Heavy - about $250
million. Both more expensive with less than half the payload.

Simple answer - current satellites will be launched, but much *MUCH*
bigger versions will be just around the corner - longer lives; more
powerful commsats etc.

Then there's the replacement for ISS - bigger modules with longer lives
mean less expense overall.

Then there's early Lunar ops - heard of my idea for Apollo NG? I worked
out, that to get 7 tonnes payload onto the Lunar surface, I needed an
LEO lift of 55 tonnes - I think I can save just a little on LEO, or
reduce Lunar Surface payload by less than a tonne. Easy, Peasy.