"Pat Flannery" wrote in message
dakotatelephone...
On 2/26/2010 12:13 PM, Fred J. McCall wrote:
William wrote:

:
:In the end we will have the sort of world Jonathan envisions and it
:will be wonderful.
:

snork

Johnathon was the guy that wanted a revolution to break out in China during
the Beijing Olympics.


I'm supposed to apologize for that? I predicted some year and a half
in advance that in and around the Beijing Olympics, some small
protest would bring a /dramatic over-reaction/ by Chinese security.
And that would set off a general uprising that would topple the regime.
I was quite clear about that, and numerous times. Not only
here but even more so in the larger China and Taiwan ngs.

All based on the fundamentals of non-linear systems.
Based on the simple premise, which most children can
comprehend Pat, that rigid systems survive by isolating
the independent variables from each other. But when
a rigid system becomes /fully connected/, as it would during
/The Olympics/, a rigid system becomes highly brittle.
So sensitive that even a handful of people can bring the
house of cards down. If they find it's sensitive spot.
I picked Taiwan to be that spot, it turned out to be Tibet.

Otherwise I was right on the money in my attempt to
accurately predict a spontaneous real world event in advance.

What /in fact/ happened was, the week before the Olympics
began, a small protest of some Tibetan monks, a dozen or two
if I remember, was put down by some 5000 Chinese troops.
China was sparing no expense. Setting off a furious reaction, within
hours the riot spread and the Tibetan capital became the scene
of the worst civil unrest in China in twenty years, since Tianenman
Square. And the riots spread throughout Tibet from border to border.

Unfortunately, the unrest was sealed firmly within the Tibetan
borders. China /almost lost / Tibet however, it was close.
Much closer than China would admit.

All in all, I'm pretty proud of that prediction. I got the date right
within a day or two, I got the 'initial conditions' right, and the
character of the response right, being 'system-wide'.

And I'm curious why it would bother you that I wish China would become
a democracy, instead of a communist state? If you like China so much
some of the following countries would surely let you in.

Which side are you on?
Below lists 'one side' of this issue.


"Countries around the world have expressed their support to the
Chinese government on its handling of the recent riots in Lhasa"

"The Zambian government denounced the ferocity of the rioters in
Lhasa, hoping that stability would be restored soon"

"Spokesman of the Foreign Ministry of the Democratic People's
Republic of Korea (DPRK) on Thursday strongly denounced
the unsavory elements of their moves to seek "the independence
of Tibet" and scuttle the upcoming Beijing Olympics."

"A spokesman of Mongolia's Foreign Ministry reiterated that Mongolia
adheres to the one-China policy and recognizes Tibet as an inalienable
part of China."

"A spokesman of the Bangladeshi Ministry of Foreign Affairs issued
a statement on Thursday, expressing Bangladesh's solidarity with China
on the Tibet issue."

"The Foreign Ministry of Nepal said in a statement that Tibet is an
inseparable part of China..."

"Kazakh Vice Foreign Minister Nurlan Baiuzakovich Yermekbayev
told reporters that Tibet is an inseparable part of the Chinese
territory..."

"Tajik First Deputy Foreign Minister Abdullo Yuldoshev told Chinese
ambassador to Tajikistan that his country strongly condemns the
organizers and mobs who sparked the riots in Lhasa"

"Georgian Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs Grigol Vashadze said his
country believes that the riots in Lhasa will not affect the Beijing Olympics"

"Syria condemned on Thursday the recent acts of sabotage in Lhasa
and expressed solidarity with China in maintaining security and
stability in Tibet"

"Fiji's Prime Minister Voreqe Bainimarama said his country supports
China's dealing with the riots..."

"Serbia on Thursday reiterated its support in principle to the one-China
policy"

"Sierra Leone's Minister of Foreign Affairs said on Tuesday that her
country sees clearly the intention of the Dalai Lama clique to instigate
violence in Tibet"

"Benin government spokesperson strongly condemned the violence
which was planned and instigated by Dalai Lama"

"Any scheme wrecking social stability in Tibet and attempting
secede Tibet from China would go against people's will," said
Tibet regional chairman Qiangba Puncog, "it is doomed to fail."

Source:Xinhua
http://english.peopledaily.com.cn/90...6/6378818.html



IT WASN'T A SCHEME, IT WAS A SPONTANEOUS NON-LINEAR
REACTION TO A RANDOM EVENT. A random event that disturbed
a very large and rigid top down command system while it was in the
midst of one of it's most 'critical' political points of it's existence.
While all eyes were upon China!

The point being, it's not supposed to be possible to predict a spontaneous
real world event at all, let alone so far in advance. But, after the
fact, the reasoning for the prediction should be easy to see and
rather obvious. That's how good complexity science is at real
world systems.



"China's Premier Wen Jiabao has blamed the Dalai Lama for orchestrating
riots in Tibet that have left at least 16 people dead in the worst violence
there for two decades."
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worl...-Olympics.html

"Another violent protest aimed in part at distracting from China's leadup to
this summer's Beijing Olympics erupted in Tibet on Friday, the
AP reports."

"In a fifth day of riots, angry protesters set shops ablaze and gunfire was
reported in Tibet's regional capital of Lhasa'
http://content.usatoday.com/communit.../03/47021638/1

Countries around the world have expressed their support to the Chinese
government on its handling of the recent riots in Lhasa
http://english.peopledaily.com.cn/90...6/6378818.html




Johnathan will lead us all to Utopia, no matter how many people get
killed in the process.
Really Bolshevik, that concept.


Well maybe so, but the future I see is quite simple, not only will
democracy end up spanning the globe, as natural systems are
the more competitive, and all things Internet will change the
power structure of the globe in a fundamental way.

When a network the likes of the human race decides to focus it
attention, the swiftness and power of such events can be
overwhelming to any government. The power structure is /currently/
transitioning from a top down to bottom up system. From too much
power in the hands of the few, swinging to an excessive amount of
power by the people. The reason that is good, is that a truly natural
system follows a power law, which means every horizontal slice in
a pyramid would have the same total power as any other slice.

Total power at the top equals total power at the bottom, which each
intermediate slice being equal as well. That is the structure of life, and
evolution. Since each layer is equal, real world randomness sets them
to 'trembling'. And then searching state space for the higher peak.
On and on.

One has to have trust in the process which managed to create human
intelligence.



Pat