The 2009 Aerospace Safety Advisory Panel report has been released by
NASA; pdf he
http://www.hq.nasa.gov/office/oer/as...ual_Report.pdf

Key findings:

1.) No manufacturer of Commercial Orbital Transportation Services is
currently qualified for human-rating requirements, despite some claims
and beliefs to the contrary.

2.) To abandon the program of record* as a baseline for an alternative
without demonstrated capability or proven superiority is unwise and
probably not cost-effective.

3.) Extension of the shuttle program significantly beyond the current
manifest would be ill-advised. The panel is concerned about discussions
regarding possible extension of shuttle operations.

*Ares-1/Orion

The ball is certainly in SpaceX and Orbital Science's court now; both
must prove that they can make a booster as reliable as Ares-1 and a
manned spacecraft as safe as Orion...as well as demonstrating that a
first stage failure during ascent will melt the parachutes on their
aborting space capsule design also, allowing the crew to fall to their
deaths.
A tough nut to crack, that one. ;-)


Pat